All entries for Thursday 10 March 2011

March 10, 2011

Making decisions by using the decision tree

The decision tree gives a very clear picture about the whole problem. It represents the complete problem and all the alternatives in a way that it becomes very easy to chose the appropriate course of action. It sequentially illustrates all the decisions at the different stages. The final result, in the form of monetary value or the utility, from all the combiations of actions can be seen and the decisions can be made accordingly. It reduces the difficulty in solving a complex problem which involves a lot of combinations of different actions.

I have used the decision trees previously in my bachelor's degree but at that time I found its usage a bit difficult as the manual calculations involved in solving a large decision tree was very tedious. I got to know recently about the software which solves the decision trees. It totally changed my conception of the decision trees. The claculations by hand were the most dauntig thing about them, but with the use the software, they can become extremely easy. Now all I have to do is to make the decision tree and put it in the software and it will give me the answers. I can use it in the future, with great ease, whenever I face a complex problem involving a range of different alternatives and outcomes.  


A common mistake in decision making

In the decision about which tools to use for the mini project, I initially shortlisted some of those tools, which I had used or heard about before. I gave them preference over the other tools and made the mistake which is very common in the decision making process. Just beacuse something seems easy or stands out from the rest beacuse of previous encounter, it shouldn't be given preference. All the possible alternatives need to be equally weighed. The final decision should be made by giving equal importace to all the alternatives.  


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