Poor judgment in a TV game . . . Short term thinking
I was watching a TV game called something like the weakest link. In that game a team answers question and earns money. In case of wrong question no money are gained. So at the end of each round the team members vote for the worst player and he/she just abandon the game.
The problem is that four three consecutive rounds there was a player who had zero wrong answers. The same player in the fourth round had the worst performance. So the team members voted against him. Is that judgment correct? I do not think so. If he was the best player for three rounds and only in one the worst the probabilities to have a good round in the next turn are high.
In my mind came the idea that our judgments should not only based in what is happening now but look for data over a time. Is the same problem with the financial people. The take the last two year figures of the income for example and create a trend. . . . . . Can we assume that the process is in statistical control? (I love variation)J.
All these lead to short term thinking. . . . . The economic problem of our society.