All 4 entries tagged Decision
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April 22, 2012
It is Sunday, cannot imagine someone would be working today (of course not in service sector).
I called up my friend,...turned out she has on-call duty today, anyway, .....she told me that it is such a hectic day for her as a couple of million dollar was lost, after only 8 hours of her employer's computer system went down since the business operation really relied on the system.
The root cause, was due to the server upgrade project which was planned months ahead, but when it didn't work out as it should be.
All the technicians spent all the efforts trying to fix the problems because they had no clue of what to do if the upgrade hadn't gone as planned. They only knew how to go forward,..... but somehow forgot to give any attention on how to step backward safely to the origin without falling.
As previously mentioned, RDM has not been my company.
so, I only know how to go forward when deciding on my education.
I don't have any backup plan of if I flunk this, what would be the next step besides tumbling down the hill, into a pool of quicksand and start sinking slowly.
What is more robust? planning to make a firm move forward to minimise failure or planning for possible worst case?
or maybe the combination of both ;D
April 20, 2012
The recent earth quake and tsunami warning in the south Pacific brought me back to late 2004,
where several hundred-thousands of lives were washed away by the giant waves.
At that time, Thailand did not have the slightest clue of that they could be potentially hit by tsunami so there was absolutely no warning system whatsoever.
After the event, several pundits came out, criticizing the government for not listening to their warning of the disaster.
Even if scenario planning was used whether the tsunami warning system should be implemented along the coast of Thailand, I was not sure of the outcome. For several centuries of recorded history, there's never been such phenomena.
How would a group of people come up with scenario that may or may not happen?
A good blend of knowledgable people in decision-making group? Creativity?
Given the fact that tsunami naver hit Thailand before, and no history data, how would anyone consider about preventing it?
April 17, 2012
Do the Hollywoods movie studios use RDM, before investing a hundred of million dollars on a movie?
I wonder how could they forecast whether a movie was going to be a hit or turn out to be a flop since the preference of the audiences varies and to me, unpredictable.
Disney must have done some analysis before spending over 250 million dollars on John Carter, a movie which I'd never thought of watching, after seeing a trailer, which according to CNN report, will cause the studio a staggering operating lost between 80 to 120 millions.
what would be good decision-making tools for Disney then?
Do they only have a theme or a rough idea of what movie they will be making?
Would it possible for them to employ decision-making techniques to define their thoughts and arrive at an answer to what exactly the movie they're going to produce.
it is hard, isn't it?
Creativity and imagination are things that should not be bound by any condition, I believe artists can produce the best of works when they are not confined by anything.
March 05, 2012
Robust decision making and Leadership
This is sort of what I was looking for to answer my question in Leadership module,...
I was always wondering when I heard good leader must make good decision,
and I was thinking how?....
what could leader possibly do the ensure good outcome,
what's a guarantee for that,
how would a leader make good decision everytime?
and is it about making a decision or managing the situation after that.....
then Jeff said,....good decision doesn't always lead to good outcome, but good decision is one that's best for that time being, and it's made based on information/facts/ appropriate tools, .........brilliant !!
Due diligence..... I think it is safe to say that leaders who did their job in the process of decision making but faced horrible outcome due to uncontrollable factors are considered better leaders than ones that made decision by their hunch or instinctively.
That's exactly leader's responsibility,...making sure that every decision is best made, thorough, and based on facts.
...next is to take into account contingency,....make it robust.