All entries for April 2012
April 22, 2012
It is Sunday, cannot imagine someone would be working today (of course not in service sector).
I called up my friend,...turned out she has on-call duty today, anyway, .....she told me that it is such a hectic day for her as a couple of million dollar was lost, after only 8 hours of her employer's computer system went down since the business operation really relied on the system.
The root cause, was due to the server upgrade project which was planned months ahead, but when it didn't work out as it should be.
All the technicians spent all the efforts trying to fix the problems because they had no clue of what to do if the upgrade hadn't gone as planned. They only knew how to go forward,..... but somehow forgot to give any attention on how to step backward safely to the origin without falling.
As previously mentioned, RDM has not been my company.
so, I only know how to go forward when deciding on my education.
I don't have any backup plan of if I flunk this, what would be the next step besides tumbling down the hill, into a pool of quicksand and start sinking slowly.
What is more robust? planning to make a firm move forward to minimise failure or planning for possible worst case?
or maybe the combination of both ;D
April 21, 2012
I have never made a robust decision before,
through all my life, whenever I reach crossroad, I always leave it up to destiny.
If I had known about decision-making tools, my life would have been different.
I would make sure that every step I take is firm and that no matter what happens I would not regret.
I would have been more prepared than this, and I would have thought of my choice and its consequences more carefully and critically.
Decision-making tools make us think logically, anyhow, we are all capable of thinking rationally but we are only human and sometimes subjected to psychological traps,.....instead of using our gut feeling, the tools help us turn to a scientific way when dealing with decisions.
But if I were using decision-making tool for my education choice, I would have been somewhere else, and thus, I would not be introduced with decision-making tools in the first place.
hahaha confusing,..just like time machine paradox.
A certain information technology project was called off after the company injected close to a hundred million dollars and wasted over 4 years of their resources.
The main reason behind the cancellation was that they couldn't withstand the constant changes of Italian regulations on running energy business and could no longer forecast the upcoming ones;
one change in Italian law can results in a major computer system enhancement which is also, costly.
Thus, it's better for the company to cut a finite lost, in order to not to spend who knows how much more. (I'm talking about a multi-billion dollar company in which a hundred millions could have been only what they spend on an annual cost of stationaries.)
I guess this is where the unpredictable factor became too unpredictable which collapsed all the good plans generated by RDM tools.
Anyway, congratulations to the company,....at least they did not fall into decision trap,....hahaha SUNK COST
It is almost no surprise why I felt stress when started reading about AM and KM, it's like what they say "old habit dies hard".
Right, this morning Paul mentioned that a probable reason we feel overwhelmed by KBAM is because we get used to education system that focuses on details, theories, pure knowledge. We do not know how to think real, and we do not have a good grasp of concept.
I'm quite disappointed in myself, because this is probably the last 'real' MBE module, the one I signed up for because I believe it would introduce me to many soft skills that will stay with me, that will be applicable to anything I want to do in the future.
So how come I'm still the same person as I was 7 months ago?
Do I need a longer time to get used to it?
Why am I realising this only in my head?
Is it because everything seems to be so philosophical?
Do I undermine myself?
Is it because I have not been focusing this whole time?
April 20, 2012
The recent earth quake and tsunami warning in the south Pacific brought me back to late 2004,
where several hundred-thousands of lives were washed away by the giant waves.
At that time, Thailand did not have the slightest clue of that they could be potentially hit by tsunami so there was absolutely no warning system whatsoever.
After the event, several pundits came out, criticizing the government for not listening to their warning of the disaster.
Even if scenario planning was used whether the tsunami warning system should be implemented along the coast of Thailand, I was not sure of the outcome. For several centuries of recorded history, there's never been such phenomena.
How would a group of people come up with scenario that may or may not happen?
A good blend of knowledgable people in decision-making group? Creativity?
Given the fact that tsunami naver hit Thailand before, and no history data, how would anyone consider about preventing it?
April 19, 2012
Just came across an article capturing comments from foreigners working in Thailand with Thai people.
They mentions that there are 10 working habits that hold them back from career advance, and one of those are "unable to make robust decision, and thus, they tend to react to problem rather than being proactive."
Indeed it would save time and prevent the spread of damage if one is to make robust decision that take into account noises and uncertainty, at least the problems are foreseen and some preventive measures could be in place.
What would make a manager get into a habit of using techniques and decision-making tools when he has to make decisions?
April 18, 2012
KBAM KBAM KBAM
While going through topics of Asset Management and Knowledge Management, I found myself overwhlemed with information and that it's such a tedious work (i'm a type of person that learn best via listening).
yes, it is because I have no prior knowledge and I lost sense of direction and I do not know how to build my though because I lack foundation.
This may as well be the case for many organisations that do not have knowledge mangement in place. People might have potential to contribute, but there is nothing that could help them form their thought that can be translated into knowledge and share it.
Many ideas could be lost along the way. Also I feel that organisations without KM somehow send out a message to their people that knowleadge and learning is not important in this place.
and without knowledge, what would help organisation to trive for a betterment?, what is there to build upon?
physical asset, indeed, is important, and so does intangible asset like knowledge.
Chelsea FC forked out a substantial amount of money hiring a manager whom was believed to be capable of turning around the club's poor results in the previous season, only to be fired 8 months later after a series of defeat and jeopardizing unity among players.
I think the manger was hired based on his previous successes during his reign at his former club (bias), on a very nice cv has was possessing.
What about executive positions in a company, positions which are critical in making big decisions?
Is there any difference in the selection progress when it comes to hiring a clerk?
Of course there must be some differences but to my understanding, the criteria are based on the past success embedded in the curriculum vitae which does not always guarantee the same success.
Where would RDM fit into this?
what is a good decision-making tool for judging people?
April 17, 2012
Do the Hollywoods movie studios use RDM, before investing a hundred of million dollars on a movie?
I wonder how could they forecast whether a movie was going to be a hit or turn out to be a flop since the preference of the audiences varies and to me, unpredictable.
Disney must have done some analysis before spending over 250 million dollars on John Carter, a movie which I'd never thought of watching, after seeing a trailer, which according to CNN report, will cause the studio a staggering operating lost between 80 to 120 millions.
what would be good decision-making tools for Disney then?
Do they only have a theme or a rough idea of what movie they will be making?
Would it possible for them to employ decision-making techniques to define their thoughts and arrive at an answer to what exactly the movie they're going to produce.
it is hard, isn't it?
Creativity and imagination are things that should not be bound by any condition, I believe artists can produce the best of works when they are not confined by anything.
April 12, 2012
One of the reason people could not be bothered to employ decision-making tools is that they are lazy,
simple as that, because it seems like complex tools gives us more accurate and credible soulution than the simple ones.
Take simple grid analysis for example, it is a straightforward tool that requires less effort than say...SMART and AHP.
So I think the seriousness of problem and severity of consequences dictate decision makers' choice of tools.
Does that sound like we are not making a robust decision if we were to use simple tools that leave big space for incorrectness and unreliability?