Some decisions are so complex that even the best decision tools cannot help pinpiont the best and only way to do.
That is, a complex decision is always involved with uncertainty or depending on other events to happen, the best we could do is relying our decision on probability of the outcome.
When facing dilemma, it is almost up to the management whether they love taking risk to take a shot for big gain, or prefer playing safe with significantly less profit.
And financial aspect is not the only thing to be considered, an even greater impact could come from other aspects e.g. company image/reputaion, environment, legal. What tool could we use to compare the weight of something in figure like finance and something unmeasurable like reputation?
All in all, when it is too complex, the best decision by far is the one that is informed and does not contradict with organisation's integrity. Occam's razor principle can be of a help?