All entries for Friday 20 April 2012

April 20, 2012

…scenario


The recent earth quake and tsunami warning in the south Pacific brought me back to late 2004,
where several hundred-thousands of lives were washed away by the giant waves.
At that time, Thailand did not have the slightest clue of that they could be potentially hit by tsunami so there was absolutely no warning system whatsoever.
After the event, several pundits came out, criticizing the government for not listening to their warning of the disaster.

Even if scenario planning was used whether the tsunami warning system should be implemented along the coast of Thailand, I was not sure of the outcome. For several centuries of recorded history, there's never been such phenomena.

How would a group of people come up with scenario that may or may not happen?
A good blend of knowledgable people in decision-making group? Creativity?

Given the fact that tsunami naver hit Thailand before, and no history data, how would anyone consider about preventing it?


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