March 06, 2016

Robust Decision Making

This week, the Robust decision making has started. there are several types of decision maker based on personality, including Exervtor, Introvert, Senser, User of Intuition, Judge, User of Perception, Thinker and Feeler. Among the personality type, it is not only to stick on one features, the change comes from age, situation and experience. In company perspective, decision making could be divided into three basic types, involving Operational, Emergency/Urgent and Strategic. Operational decision making refers to basic operating function of company, such as allocating employes working responsibility and handling customer complaints; strategic decision making relates a medium to long term business plan, such as a marketing research for luanching a new product and improveing the producitivity of producing process in next year. Emergency decisions is more compatiable than others, the option need to be made in a very short time with limiting information and knowledge. It is improtant to notice that bias lead to negative influences while person or team is making a decision. In order to make appropriate judgement, understanding and avoiding bias are necessary. The bia could be from the avaliability heurstic(based on ease of recall, memory structure), representivness heurstic(based on misuderstanding of stastic) and anchoring and adjustment heurstic(based on first impression override sound judgement). For the sake of averting bias, I think scientific techniques help to make right decisions. There are variours tools and methods which assist building robust decisions, such as AHP, decision tree analysis and risk analysis etc. In my opinion, robust decision making is very improtant in everywhere, people need to konw how to make good decision, what bias could impact judgement and which scientific tool is the most suitable the suitation. a good decision is able to enhance the performance of company and people life.

 


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