November 06, 2004

What comes next? Hillary vs. Arnie?!

The result of the American election definitly surprised me. Bush has won another term. Four more years… Even though the polls before election showed that it was a neck-and-neck race I still was convinced that after four years of "Bushism" Kerry was on the right way to presidency. But… Bush has exceeded all expectations. The Americans voted and they voted him into the White House. Again. What can you say more about Democracy?

Depressingly there is nothing to do but to think of the future. What and the more interesting question is WHO will come after Bush? Who will be the candidates for 2008?

The situation for the Democrates are pretty clear. What Kerry lost is what Hillary gained. In this presidential battle Hillary Clinton is definitly the big winner, besides George W. Bush. If Kerry had won the election then any chance for her to candidate in 2008 would have disappeared entirely. But the outcome is even more delicious. One might think that John Edwards could run for the White House if he did well enough in this year's election. If... John Edward was certainly not a serious rival for Hillary Clinton. He did not outperform Dick Cheney in their debate. And Bush easily captured Edward's home state North Carolina. This is how The Times describes him Nice hair, nice teeth, no future.

The situation for the Republicans are more complicated. Jeb Bush, the president's brother is expected to be the potential candidate. There is no doubt that his own popularity has helped his brother to the crown. But his absolute support for his brother can also be his oath. Since "a Bush will always be a Bush" George W.'s policy in this term will certainly determine Jeb Bush's future in 2008.

So the Republicans need a back up candidate. And who will suit more the American way of doing politics than Arnold Schwarzenegger? America rescues the world and The Terminator has already prooved that he is capable of doing that. Is he the hero of 2008? One thing is for sure if the Republicans nominate him for President then Arnie will flex his muscles and we will get to see the revival of The Teminator.

Will the 2008 election be a battle between Hillary and Arnie? Who and what will the Americans vote for? Brain or Muscle? And since the majority of the Americans has voted for Bush in this election I don't dare to make any predictions for 2008. It will remain a battle of which the result will not be cristal clear.

Who do you think will be the US president in 2008?

- 26 comments by 1 or more people Not publicly viewable

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  1. Arnold Schwarzenegger can't run for the Presidency because he is a naturalised US citizen and the constitution doesn't allow naturalised US citizens to run as President.

    I think Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush are the most likely Republican candidates, while Hillary Clinton has a very good chance of being the Democrat candidate.

    06 Nov 2004, 22:46

  2. I hope for Jeb to be the Republican candidate, but i'm not sure he will. He ruled it out in a recent ABC interview.

    Rudy Giuliani seems a little to liberal for the Republicans to tactically choose. I mean, if they want the evangelicals' guarenteed support then they will need to choose someone who is a practicing Christian.

    Although I am not entirely sure on Rudy Giuliani's background I have a feeling he is a libertarian rather than a Neo Conservative– I think he is pro gay marriage too.

    This is probably a good thing for you, but as we saw in this election, it was Bush's family values which won many voters over to him. If the Republicans want to win the next election they would probably be best off sticking to the same demographic formula.

    As for the Democrats– A lot of people say Clinton will go for it, I have also heard Edwards' name being mentioned by a few people, as has some guy called McKinlay or something. But I would probably go with most people– Mrs Clinton will probably be their candidate. But she is considered very "liberal", plus, since she is a woman– I can't see the men voting for her– I think there is still a lot of sexism in the sothern and mid states.

    06 Nov 2004, 23:06

  3. Arnold wasn't born in the USA so can't run for president unless they change the constitution. Also, he's actually on the liberal side of the Republicans, seeing as he is pro–stem cell research (he's replaced the federal funding to Californian researchers that Bush cut with state funding). Giuliani I've heard discussed on other sites, and the consensus seemed to be that he is also a bit to liberal for the party to pick as presidential candidate, and he probably wouldn't ant to be anyway. Remember, both Arnie and Rudy come from states which are 'traditionally' Democrat (CA and NY). Jeb Bush's fate will probably depend on what happens in his brother's second term.
    As for Hillary, I wouldn't be surprised, but there will probably be a lot of challengers for the Democrat candidacy next time (there were about 7 this time). McKinlay I've not heard of, so I can't comment,.

    06 Nov 2004, 23:17

  4. So guys, here comes the constitution:

    "No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty five years, and been fourteen Years a resident within the United States."

    It just says that the president has to be a citizen who has been 14 years a resident in the US. I believe that Arnold has been a resident since more than 20 years (?).

    06 Nov 2004, 23:25

  5. Jie, it means that the President can't have lived abroad for a protracted period; the first half of that sentence (up to the semi–colon) is qualified by the second half. Thus, Arnie can't be President without an amendment.

    06 Nov 2004, 23:48

  6. at the time of writing they had to allow for being an ex–colony, the key bit is AT THE TIME OF THE ADOPTION OF THIS CONSTITUTION

    06 Nov 2004, 23:50

  7. Ok, got you. So the question would be whether a change of constitution is realistic.

    06 Nov 2004, 23:58

  8. I somehow can't see such an amendment being ratified in the near future.

    07 Nov 2004, 00:07

  9. I can't believe that either. This could propably only happen if the republicans really ran out of candidates and ironically if Arnold Schwarzenegger really has done something heroic, i.e. rescued America. But since there are popular candidates such as Jeb Bush, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain the chances for Arnie are therefore certainly very small.

    But check this out: "Opreation Arnold–for the strongest America" – an online petition to ammend this article link . First attempt to change the constitution ;–) ?

    07 Nov 2004, 01:09

  10. I didn't intend to cross out ironically.

    Hmm, it's really stupid that you can't even edit your own comment once it is published.

    07 Nov 2004, 01:14

  11. The Democrats need to concentrate on getting back some seats in the House and Senate in 2006 – (a) because they need them; (b) to build up a base and some momentum for 2008.

    Jie Shen. I suggest you always click "preview" for your comments before posting them – that way you can edit them.

    07 Nov 2004, 04:43

  12. Plus, as it's your own blog, you can delete your own comments and re–write them if you want.

    07 Nov 2004, 04:44

  13. I wouldn't put it past the Republicans to change the Constitution but would they change it to allow Arnie a go or would they change it to give Gimpy W. Bush another term? I'd prefer Arnie, I may not like his Conservative financial policies but he is socially Liberal… although in comparison Thatcher is socially Liberal compared to Gimp W. Bush.

    07 Nov 2004, 11:23

  14. how do u get the pictures integrated with the text like that?! in my blog i can only seem to get pictures either above or below the writing!!

    07 Nov 2004, 11:27

  15. Technical stuff:

    Siobhan, below the path of the picture which you copy into your text there are two buttons. Click on Layout and you can choose whether you want it on the right or left side of your text. And then add the new path where ever you want it into your text.

    Charles, I can't copy and paste any comments and I'm way too lazy to rewrite everything. But you are right. I will use Peview next time.

    07 Nov 2004, 12:31

  16. Political again:

    Guys, I do think Rudolph Giuliani has a very big chance to run for 2008. He might be too liberal for the Republicans but this is rather a chance for them. They will not only get the usual Republican votes but also get votes from undecided Liberals. And through 9/11 he has certainly established himself as a sympathetic leader. Hillary Clinton will have a hard time when Giuliani is the other candidate. Whereas a battle between Hillary and Jeb Bush will divide the country.

    07 Nov 2004, 13:03

  17. So if Jeb gets in, we can expect another invasion of Iraq then. It must be genetic or something.

    I'd support Hilary if she went for it, but it does kind of make a mockery of supposedly the greatest democracy in the world, when its the same two families vieing for power over and over again.

    Is there a comparison with the republican states of early mod europe anyone? :s

    07 Nov 2004, 15:01

  18. Hilary will just suffer the same problems as Kerry did this year, she's pretty much the same kind of Democrat, from the north–east, so she will find it difficult to connect with the 'red states', especially since she's a Clinton and half the country isn't too keen on the Clintons. Against Giuliani she'd have no chance. Against Jeb, the election could be a repeat of Tuesday. The Democrats need a southerner next time, and apparently the governor of Virginia, Mark Warner, might be a good bet.

    07 Nov 2004, 16:14

  19. Adam, American politics is like a big soap opera :) . Bush, Clinton, Bush again and then Clinton against Bush and then either Bush or Clinton … hahaha.

    Just imagine either Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush wins the election in 2008 and run again in the election of 2012. How many elections would have involved the surname Clinton or Bush?

    07 Nov 2004, 17:41

  20. Plus: I really like the idea of "The Bush Gene".

    07 Nov 2004, 17:48

  21. Giuliani against Hillary would guarantee that one candidate loses their home state, as they're both New Yorkers. That's one of the reasons why I think Giuliani would be a good choice for the Republicans; he'd probably win New York, which ha a lot of Electoral College votes and usually votes Democrat.

    07 Nov 2004, 17:51

  22. Hillary was born and grew up in Chicago.

    07 Nov 2004, 18:26

  23. L

    i think hilary would make a fantastic candidate for the democrats and i hope she'd win as well—take that bush bitch

    08 Nov 2004, 01:42

  24. Doen't necessarily mean she'll run as a candidate from Illinois. She is Senator for New York State.

    08 Nov 2004, 08:48

  25. I'd like to see Hillary C, however she would either win or be destroyed by the Republican vengence machine.
    She has three things going for her: She's a woman, she's known (be it good or bad), she has views which people identified with when she was 1st lady, so unlike kerry people would actually be able to identify with her.
    I'd like to see Her v Guilliani as it would throw everything open. The dems may lose NY but the Reps could lose some of the South.
    Ultimately tho, what happen in four years depends on whether there's another large scale attack on America, what happens in Iraq and where bush invades next.

    09 Nov 2004, 01:26

  26. Looks like Kerry's considering running again.

    09 Nov 2004, 19:59

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