All entries for Friday 18 March 2011
March 18, 2011
Today, during the presentation, Jeff asked a group why they wanted to choose some simple tools instead of the complex ones. The answer is they wished to use simple tools which they could understood clearly. I definitely agree their opinion. Yes, we can read articles or books to gain more knowledge about tools to make decision. But it is impossible for us to learn enough ideas about complex tools. We used AHP, decision tree in our presentation but no one can say he/her already completed understood these tools. We chose them as we believed generally we learned something about them and we knew how to use it maybe just in one or two aspects. The simple tools, we can learn them and understand them easily and clearly. Thus, it is impossible that we use them with mistakes, perhaps there are a few, but just only a few. However, even if complex tools may result in a much robust decision usually if we use them correctly. But since the complex and difficult in adopting then tools, it is easy to misuse them and thus come out a terrible decision without noticing it by ourselves. So in my opinion, only if I am quite sure about the utilization of a tool, I won¡¯t pick any one unless I have enough time and resources to learn it.
Both quantitative and qualitative data are important to a company in decision making. However, only quantitative data can use more technical tools such as simulation, AHP, decision tree. Unless the qualitative data has been ranked or valued, the above technical tools cannot be adopted. May be these tools do not turn out to be more scientific than the others, but at least they appear so. What I want to doubt is that do these technical methods tend to be more effective and correct in decision making. Of course, using mathematical analysis tools to analyze some data will make a decision sounds more convinced because the result is more accurate compares to only using some simple tools that contain many biases. But can we say more accurate result leads to a better decision or is it mathematical analysis more accurate? Because of the limited energy, time and cost, we can¡¯t conclude all possible factors or criterias. Therefore, the outcome of the mathematical analysis is only based on the limited elements. It isn¡¯t completed at all. In contrast, when analyzing qualitative, it is usually not easy to do maths processing so that this kind of analysis may contain more biases than quantitative analysis. Even though we only list some limited aspects again, but when we valuing them subjectively, sometimes we tend to combine these issues with other elements or situation unconsciously. In this case, perhaps the scope of our thinking is wider and we consider more aspects in our decision making.