All entries for Friday 11 March 2011

March 11, 2011

intuition vs evidence

During the team work, I find that it is not so easy to decide the tools in decision making. Moreover, the tools we choose are restricted to the information we have. For example, in our case, due to the limitation of data, it is impossible for us to use SSM such as simulation analysis. Therefore, the more information we obtain, the more appropriate decisions we can made ignoring the cost of the data. Obviously, biases always exist in the decision making, especially for the decisions which made by our intuitive system without research, analysis, and calculating. However, a processed based system can¡¯t guarantee the correctness all the time. What¡¯s more, even though the latter system appears more trustable, sometimes it is hard to say which one is better. Intuitive is one of the most important aspects in making decision, despite it seems unscientific. For example, it is not rare to hear that many evidences against a man, but a police deems this man isn¡¯t the criminal by his intuition and finally, he turns out to be right. Also, all the expectation are based on the trends and experiences before, sometimes it is difficult to judge the correctness of the data and whether these trends and laws can be adopted to nowadays situation or not. There are many excellent mathematicians, and economists who are all good at analyzing, however, there are only one Buffett. Who can deny his intuition plays a significant role in his business.


March 2011

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  • every tools has its specifics..however…they are not away from limitations…i believe two or more … by on this entry
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