August 19, 2006

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Although I'd caught the odd episode here and there (my housemates this past year were fans) I'd never actually watched Lost in and kind of sequence; until recently. I'd enjoyed what I'd seen and decided the other day, "What the hell; I'm going to buy the box set. I've enjoyed the handful of episodes I've seen, so it's bound to be even better in full and in order…" And it is; if you haven't watched it yet, you really should; the only reason I'm glad I didn't watch it at the time is that I don't have to wait a week between each episode…

Anyway, the main point I wanted to make is this: I've just got to the one where we find out about Hurley's Lottery win, and I started wondering about how many people have actually used the Lost Numbers for the Lottery…

This must be a fairly large proportion of the sub–set of Lost fans that play the Lottery and don't do a Lucky Dip. Therefore, fun though it may be, it's really rather a stupid idea; if (well, I suppose it's probably "when") the numbers come up, the jackpot's going to be split between a very large number of people; it'd be like in Bruce Almighty where the winners barely made their money back because there were so many of them…

However, if everyone realises this and doesn't use them, then the one person who does use them is going to win big.

So, if everyone realises this and uses them in the hope of being "the one", as it were, then the winnings will be tiny.

But then if everyone thinks to themselves, "Hang on, I can't be the only person who's thought this; I may as well just use random numbers in the hope of winning more money," then there'll only be a few Lost Numbers Winners who'll get a lot.

Therefore, if everyone realises… and the trouble with this kind of thing is that you can just keep going; these situations are very easy to over analyse.

So, to sum up, I'm still wondering, but have shown that you can either win or not win, and you may or may not share the winnings with a large number of people.

So basically I'm still wondering…

- 2 comments by 1 or more people Not publicly viewable

  1. Always remember: the general population is stupid.

    You're right that a disproportionate number of people will use these numbers to play the lottery, however the general population, on the whole, is stupid. Meaning, no one will actually have the sense to analyse what they are doing, so almost zero will look at the situation and go "hey, everyone's doing this, i'm gonna win nothing", and stop playing the numbers. Unless you have some foresight and know that the numbers are likely to come up, you're best off choosing at random.

    19 Aug 2006, 19:22

  2. I don't play, but I've always believed that the worst thing you can do is to choose one set of numbers and play them each week. If you do, it means that you can never stop playing and you must play every week just in case you miss that one week out of 13,983,816 when your numbers come up…

    The best thing Camelot ever did was to introduce the Lucky Dip box…

    While we're on the subject, the worst thing they did was introduce the Mid–Week Draw; it didn't double their income as they hoped, it just meant the income remained constant but was split across the two draws; meaning the jackpot dropped from Massive to Pitiful…

    19 Aug 2006, 22:55

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