All 2 entries tagged Predictions
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May 01, 2008
Based on the odds on Betfair, there is an 80% probability that Boris Johnson will win. I expect this will be outcome, rather than it being a ‘Dewey beats Truman’. Though that would be hilarious.
January 01, 2008
Welcome to 2008, my first blog post of the new year. It was 2 years ago now that I wrote my original blog post , I’m surprised I’ve managed to keep going this long, and apparently a few people still read it, though there have been few references to paraconsistent logic in recent months. Recently this blog has been taken over by my increasing obsession with the US primary race, and this entry is no different. The phrase “too close to call” may be an accurate cliché, but I’m going for an all-out prediction romp for the Iowa Caucuses.
As mentioned before this was a tough choice. Romney and Huckabee are pretty much neck and neck, so one has to look to things not taken account of in the polls. firstly most polls are very focussed on urban areas, and Huckabee has been campaigning stronger in rural ones than Romney. However, I picked Romney, because I think that Huckabee is being hurt by criticism of his past political record, and he seems to have caused a stir with a recent advert, which he claimed he wouldn’t run on television (a politician who doesn’t like negative campaigning no less) but then showed to the press. McCain has been doing increasingly well in the polls of late, so I’ve placed him 3rd even though he has focussed his campaigning on New Hampshire rather than Iowa. Giuliani isn’t expected to do well in early states, Thompson’s campaign is dead in the water and Paul is still a bit of a whacko, though he has managed to raise 20 million in the 4th quarter of 2007. I expect any other republicans who haven;t yet dropped out (Duncan Hunter?) To do so after either Iowa or New Hampshire.
Ok, so I’ve stuck with my highly controversial Obama backing for Iowa. The Rasmussen markets summary is, at time of writing, also seeing Obama as most likely to take Iowa, and I think Clinton’s campaign set backs over the period leading up to Christmas just cost her that edge of certainty. Having said that, if Clinton wins Iowa its game over. I can’t see an opportunity for either of the other two candidates to upset her momentum before super Tuesday given that she has a strong lead in New Hampshire and I believe both S.C. and Florida are closer than Iowa. Its also with noting the crazy system that democrats use in the Iowa caucuses.
Sometime in the next 3 days I need to figure out what ranking system to use to determine how close I was to the actual ordering.