February 05, 2008

Uber Tuesday

Follow-up to Florida from True Contradictions

When I originally started bloggin the republican race was looking vastly more interesting than the democratic one, several series candidates, from different wings of the party all competing with each other. Originally strong candidates were looking incredibly weak (Guiliani, McCain at the time) and Huckabee was riding a strong wave with practically no money or support. Since then the tables have turned. The republican race has settled down, with McCain a clear leader in both support and pledged delegates, whilst the democratic field has narrows with the loss of Edwards, in many ways Obama’s rise has made it less predictable.

Democrats

Whats worth noting is that Obama is coming good at the right time – 2 weeks ago he was nationally behind Clinton by 12%, one week ago that had dropped to 6%, on Sunday he was listed as 3% behind, and today CNN released poll figures showing that Obama was ahead by 3%. This is the first poll to show Obama ahead of Clinton nationally, and also the only poll showing that! Super Tuesday could really be the end of the line for the Clinton campaign – that is to say if she doesn’t win here its only downhill. Even a close 2nd for Obama will be perceived as a victory for him, and might possibly give enough momentum for the nomination.

Due to the sheer size of uber tuesday I have decided to present the results in a different manner to previously. Firstly I have prepared a spreadsheet that approximates the total number of votes I believe each candidate shall receive. I believe I will be massively more inaccurate today than previously, since as well the sheer size of the event Edward’s dropout has left massive numbers of undecided voters in the polling numbers.

Now the first thing to bear in mind about my figures are that Obama trails Clinton – this isn’t because he is behind nationally, but because many of Clinton’s strongest states (California and New York for example) vote on uber tuesday. If Obama can survive this, then he is likely to take major delegate hauls on, for example, Feb 12th (Maryland, Virginia and DC). The totals, for those who can’t be bothered to read are 871 – 816.

North East
I expect Clinton to take her home state of New York, where she is senator by a significant margin, whilst Obama will take votes upstate, I believethe city will be highly pro-Clinton. New Jersey seems a lot closer, but still goes for Clinton. Its a similar story in Massachusetts. Conneticut I believe will go Obama, due to a recent flood of new voter registration, especially amongster younger voters.

North
Minnesota appears to be favouring Obama, in light of backing from a pair of house representatives, the same with North Dakota.

South
In the south Obama leads in Georgia, and I would expect him to take the state on the back of African American support. i essentially believe white southerners will vote for Clinton and against any sort of change at all. So Alabama is a tie, and Tennessee (with its lower black populace) goes to Clinton. I also believe she will take Arkansas by a high margin, as Bill was a popular govenor there, additionally she has strong backing by the states’ current leading democrats. Oklahoma neighbours Arkansas and seems to be favouring Clinton. Arizona used to be a Hillary lead, but Obama has been endorsed by the governer and a house representative recently, so I expect it shall be close.

South West
I’ve listed California as a Clinton win, though large margin has been wiped out by Obama’s strong campaigning. His strength amongst black minorities and college educated white voters will be cancelled out by women and the elderly. Unfortunately, about 1/2 of democrats in California tend to vote by absentee ballots, and a lot early, this gives Hillary the edge, because of her past lead here. I believe New Mexico will go to Hillary, governor Richardson sat heside her at the super bowl, and her strength with hispanic voters will do her well here.

Limitations
I have no idea what the hell will happen in Alaska, American Samoa, Kansas, and Democrats abroad. I believe Alaska to go Obama but its a large state with no polling data, a small populace and a republican bent. Basically I’m pissing in the wind and guessing that they hate Hillary. The last poll in Idaho was conducted in mid december and shows al gore in the lead – I’m going for Obama, since Hillary seems to admit that he is in the lead there. I’ve given Obama a small lead in Kansas due to the strong support by State Senate members.

Republicans

I can’t be bothered doing a proper Republican rundown, since McCain will win and the democratic race has become far more exciting. I might write something on it tomorrow.


- One comment Not publicly viewable

  1. Scott Redding

    If Romney wins California, and Huckabee cuts into McCain support in the South, it might not be as crushing for him as predicted. It’ll be interesting to see how Ron Paul does, considering he came 2nd in Nevada and won Louisiana. Would he consider an independent run, and how would that affect libertarian voters for McCain? Obama’s big question is to convert all of his online interest (11 million views of his YouTube channel) into actual votes today.

    05 Feb 2008, 18:06


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