May 01, 2008

Johnson to win London Election

Based on the odds on Betfair, there is an 80% probability that Boris Johnson will win. I expect this will be outcome, rather than it being a ‘Dewey beats Truman’. Though that would be hilarious.


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  1. I wouldn’t be so sure myself. I think it’ll be a lot closer than a lot of people seem to be suggesting. Pretty much the only polls which give Boris Johnson a clear-cut victory are carried out by YouGov, who have a well-known tendency to overestimate Tory support. Don’t forget that a lot of people placing bets (and therefore affecting the odds) aren’t Londoners and therefore a.) don’t have a vote, and b.) don’t necessarily know the actual situation in London. Personally I don’t know who’s going to win, but I’m hoping against hope that it’s not Boris.

    01 May 2008, 13:45


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