January 01, 2008

Iowa

Welcome to 2008, my first blog post of the new year. It was 2 years ago now that I wrote my original blog post , I’m surprised I’ve managed to keep going this long, and apparently a few people still read it, though there have been few references to paraconsistent logic in recent months. Recently this blog has been taken over by my increasing obsession with the US primary race, and this entry is no different. The phrase “too close to call” may be an accurate cliché, but I’m going for an all-out prediction romp for the Iowa Caucuses.

Republicans:

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Giuliani
5. Thompson
6. Paul

As mentioned before this was a tough choice. Romney and Huckabee are pretty much neck and neck, so one has to look to things not taken account of in the polls. firstly most polls are very focussed on urban areas, and Huckabee has been campaigning stronger in rural ones than Romney. However, I picked Romney, because I think that Huckabee is being hurt by criticism of his past political record, and he seems to have caused a stir with a recent advert, which he claimed he wouldn’t run on television (a politician who doesn’t like negative campaigning no less) but then showed to the press. McCain has been doing increasingly well in the polls of late, so I’ve placed him 3rd even though he has focussed his campaigning on New Hampshire rather than Iowa. Giuliani isn’t expected to do well in early states, Thompson’s campaign is dead in the water and Paul is still a bit of a whacko, though he has managed to raise 20 million in the 4th quarter of 2007. I expect any other republicans who haven;t yet dropped out (Duncan Hunter?) To do so after either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Democrats:

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Biden
6. Kucinich
7. Dodd

Ok, so I’ve stuck with my highly controversial Obama backing for Iowa. The Rasmussen markets summary is, at time of writing, also seeing Obama as most likely to take Iowa, and I think Clinton’s campaign set backs over the period leading up to Christmas just cost her that edge of certainty. Having said that, if Clinton wins Iowa its game over. I can’t see an opportunity for either of the other two candidates to upset her momentum before super Tuesday given that she has a strong lead in New Hampshire and I believe both S.C. and Florida are closer than Iowa. Its also with noting the crazy system that democrats use in the Iowa caucuses.

Sometime in the next 3 days I need to figure out what ranking system to use to determine how close I was to the actual ordering.


- One comment Not publicly viewable

  1. Looking at the Intrade prediction market (a betting website. People can buy and sell contracts that pay out $100 if Clinton wins an election, and $0 otherwise. Therefore if the market price of a contract is $40 this means that the market expects Clinton to win the election with a 40% probability).

    Their market predictions agree with you for the Democrat rankings, while they put Huckabee as more likely to win the election then Romney. However in recent weeks the market expectation’s of the probability of Huckabee winning has been sharply falling while Romney’s has been increasing.

    However what is interesting is that they have predicted Obama to win with a 46% probability, as opposed to Clinton’s 35% probability of winning Iowa. So perhaps predicting a Obama victory isn’t as controversial as it seems.

    01 Jan 2008, 15:25


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