January 31, 2008

Electoral Update

So Florida went as expected, but big things have happened since! Firstly Guiliani dropped out. Thats fairly sensible on his behalf – he had no chance of winning from this point. Secondly McCain having won Florida, took the backing of both Rudy and Also Arnie, which lead to some obvious and hilarious headlines . Schwarzenegger for president is all I have to say. Which gives Mitt the Mormon (whilst writing this article I actually mistyped Moron) a problem, possible unsurmountable, of how to make a comeback. He has less backing, less momentum, and lower national polling numbers.

Finally Edwards has now also dropped out – leaving a straight Clinton vs Obama showdown. In some ways I’m surprised Edwards left it this long, since his wife’s cancer problems had resurfaced a while ago. I suspect that his campaign didn’t have much money left to run on at this point as well. One of the interesting things is that Edwards hasn’t yet endorsed anyone. If he leaves it till after super-tuesday its unlikely to have any significant impact. The only real motivation I can see here is that it leaves the door open for him being a vice presidential nomination for either candidate.

Which brings me onto another interesting question that a lot of people keep on asking – who could be a vice presidential nominee. I won’t bother covering Edwards, since I’m sure everyone reading this blog was alive in 2004, but I’ll offer a few of options either way.

Bill Richardson
Popular new mexico governor, with hispanic background. Has strong experience as energy minister and foreign affairs minion under Bill Clinton. Also has plenty of hair. Would offer more to Obama than Clinton by adding experience to his idealism and strong backing amongst the hispanic community thats crucial in swing states like new mexico, and especially florida.

Evan Bayh
Former governor of Indiana, and current senator from Indiana, Bayh nearly made a presidential run of his own this year – forming a committee and raising $10 million but decided not to enter the race due to strong competition from other candidates. Considered to be a fiscally conservative democrat Bayh has served as chair of the Democratic Leadership Council (the same position Bill Clinton held before his Presidential run). He also serves on the committee for Armed Forces, which might offer something to counter McCain. Additionally has been considered as a running mate for both Al Gore and John Kerry, and Bill Clinton has suggested that he would make a good President. In my opinion more likely for Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama.

As to republicans, Guiliani could make a viable running mate for possible candidate, as would popular former florida governer Jeb Bush. Bush would have strong fundraising potential, and also help the swing state of Florida remain republican.

If Michael Bloomber decides that he won’t run, he would make an ideal running mate for anyone out of McCain, Clinton or Obama. Currently New York Major, practically limitless fundraising abilities (he’s worth $11 billion), fiscally conservative but socially pseudo-liberal. Success in business is often seen as a good administrative indicator in politicians. Been a member of both parties in the past, and is often seen as advocating better cooperation and less partisan politics. I wouldn’t be too surprised if there was a tussel for him as a running mate.

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