All entries for Tuesday 29 January 2008
January 29, 2008
Its time for some florida predictions! The democrats will finish in the following order: clinton,obama,edwards. There are no delegates and consequently none of the major contenders have been heavily campaigning there. And thats all i have to say about them!
So in my original primary blog post I observed that Guiliani’s strategy relied on him ignoring early states and winning the Florida primary. Unfortunately for Mr. Guiliani he has fallen in polls nationally in the last month, and now looks out of the race. The LA Times are already predicting that Guiliani is ready to drop out after Florida. Don’t get me wrong – he’ll finish strongly, but not win the states. its worth taking a brief sidetrack to examine what went wrong for Rudy.
The majority of news outlets have proclaimed that his strategy of ignoring early states and concentrating on Florida lead to his downfall. I’m entirely convinced that this is the case myself. Whilst McCain is looking strong at the moment, the early primary victories have been split between him, Romney and Huckabee. This has left no candidate with unstoppable momentum coming into Florida. I wouldn’t write off the free publicity that each of these candidates has gotten through their victories, but i don’t think ‘momentum’ really counts for that much more.
One factor is that Guiliani is competing for moderate republican voters who are big on national defence. This is funnily the same demographics as McCain – and really when Guiliani looses voters it is likely that they are going to McCain. Now McCain’s campaign has been on the rise since October 2007 – long before the first primary. This is based on solid performance in the debates (in the early ones Rudy said ‘9/11’ and very little else, in the later ones ‘Reagan’ and little else) and improved news from his campaign. You may recall that early in the campaigning season McCain was hamstrung by poor fundraising and disorganisation which resulted in negative publicity. His resurgence has hit Guiliani hard.
Another important trend that has emerged over the course of the campaign is that national security has diminished in importance, and the economy has emerged as the key issue. This leaves Guiliani’s trump card out of the deck. Mainstream news media tend to sideline core issues such as this in favour of ‘character politics’ – but its important to recognise that a lot of people are very driven by how a politician presents issues. Until recently Guiliani, despite his record as NY major, hasn’t really emphasized the economy as a key priority. Unfortunately I now feel it is too late for him.
Before moving onto the actual predictions, I’d like to make it clear that I think he’ll do a little better than the polls are predicting due to the propensity of Florida’s voters to go to the ballot boxes early (estimates suggest up to a third of them will do so). Nonetheless its a safe bet to make that Guiliani will go out at this stage.
I was hoping to be able to make an unset prediction for Romney, before any of the polls could. He was surging up on McCain over the last week. Watching the weekly Zogby tracking poll has been as exciting as watching tracking polls can ever get. Unfortunately, for me, the endorsement of governer Crist seems to have just given McCain the edge, and so I’m going to have to go with him as the safe bet. Unfortunately for Romney Florida is first past the post, so McCain will overtake him in delegates. Huckabee has fought well, but this isn’t really his state in terms of politics. Not even Chuck Norris can save him. In summary the order is as follows:
just a final thought – we’ve had two Kennedy’s back Obama in the last 2 days. Perhaps Hillary isn’t as dominant as people think …