All entries for Friday 18 January 2008

January 18, 2008

Next Primaries

This is a quick entry, since I’m using it to fill in time whilst people shower. As I’m sure some people saw, Romney won Michigan by a quite a bit (39v30 over McCain), whilst I predicted him in a close second place. Bad luck better Mullet. I think the reasons I cited in the article for him coming back strongly to second place can be applied to his victory, I simply wasn’t aware of the strength of the economic feelings there.

Republicans:

They have both Nevada and SC tomorrow, so I will be predicting both:

Nevada:
Romney
McCain
Thompson
Guiliani
Paul
Huckabee

South Carolina:
McCain
Huckabee
Romney
Paul
Thompson
Guiliani

Nevada is a state thats traditionally quite socially liberal, NB: gambling, but also very interested in business and extremely pro-free market. Its consequently good territory for Romney to pickup another win on the trot. I think McCain will go over socially conservative candidates, potentially Guiliani could do alright here, if he was really b othering with it.

Democrats:

Nevada:
Clinton
Obama
Edwards

The democratic polls are slowly leaning back Clinton’s way after the Obama insurgency. Again I’d like to observe that Nevada is poorly polled compared with earlier primaries. In fact despite the primary being tomorrow, I’m seeing more activity for big, super Tuesday states (New Jersey, New York, etc.) than I am for Nevada. The same issues apply as in the republican race as far as I can tell, and Clinton’s emphasis on detail will probably play stronger here than Obama’s message.


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