All entries for Tuesday 15 January 2008

January 15, 2008

Michigan

Follow-up to New Hampshire from True Contradictions

There is a democratic Michigan primary but it doesn't count for any "delegates":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_primaries_2008#The_Michigan_primary

Republicans


I have to say that michigan is the closest race of the primary season so far.  Its also the hardest to predict - McCain is polling between 34% and 22%, Romney between 30% and 21%, Ron Paul's polling varies by a factor of 3.

On one hand we have McCain, fresh from his NH victory and riding the crest of the wave, on the other hand we have Mitt Romney, finishing a strong second in both Iowa and NH on the back of substantial ad spending.  Why is Mitt Romney now competitive when, despite spending millions, he failed in Iowa and NH? 

The key issue in Michigan is the economy, whose unemployment rates are double the American average and has been hit by the credit crisis harder than elsewhere.  As a businessman Romney is perceived as being stronger on the economy than McCain, whose strengths are generally perceived as being immigration and anti-terrorism.  Additionally Romney was born here in Michigan, in short if Romney can't win in Michigan, he is unlikely to win anywhere.

Mike Huckabee is also campaigning strongly here hoping to get a'better than expected' result in order to boost himself going into the critical south carolina primary.  He will be expected to gain strong support amongst evangelicals and people liking his 'down to earth' style.  It is worth bearing in mind that he is in a distant 3rd, and anything higher will be considered a major result for him.

Another aspect of this poll is that since the democrats have basically nuked their own primary in the state a lot of democrats and republicans will be voting in the republican one.  It is generally expected that this will help the more centrist John McCain. 

Candidate Vote Share
McCain 27
Romney 25
Huckabee 16
Guiliani 7
Paul 7
Thompson 7

I doubt I will be able to post predictions for Nevada and SC - due to my situation this week, but at this moment in time I'd guess Obama over Clinton in Nevada though I wouldn't be too surprised to see Edwards grab another 2nd place here, since last polls I checked had all 3 of them within statiscal error margin of each other.

Its also worth noting that there are few polls going on in Nevada, since few candidates are campaigning there and pollsters don't want another embarrassment after NH.

As to republicans in Nevada I'm currently thinking about McCain, Guiliani, Romney, Huckabee, Thompson and finally Paul.  I don't state this predication with any expectations of accuracy for the same reasons I outlined for the democrats.


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