All entries for Tuesday 08 January 2008

January 08, 2008

New Hampshire

Follow-up to Iowa from True Contradictions

Time for some New Hampshire Predictions!  This time I'm going to be really bold and predict percentage share of the vote for different candidates.  Don't worry that they don't add up to 100%, some candidates who have dropped out will still have their names on the ballot.


Candidate Vote Share
Obama 38
Clinton 28
Edwards 20
Richardson 8


Obama has got massive momentum from his Iowa win, and is now looking strong for
New Hampshire, his speech afterwards got massive props.  He also looked good in the debate.  Clinton did well both in the debate and her post-Iowa speech, but part of the problem that she faces is that by running as an inevitable candidate and having lead the race for so long, any sign of weakness is a real problem for her.   One of the reason that Clinton lead for so long is that people perceived Clinton to be more electable than obama, now this veneer has been shattered (these predictions need more mixed metaphors) by his victory in a highly white rural area and with a high %age of the female vote, Obama is surging.  Additionally I suspect there will be many "comeback kids" related puns.


Candidate Vote Share
McCain 33
Romney 30
Huckabee 12
Guiliani 10
Paul 8
Thompson 3

McCain's position is on a knife-edge, and his win depends on independants turning out for him in New Hampshire.  (In New Hampshire independants can vote either way) Romney has gained on him in the last day on the back of a superior performance in the debates.  (I don't believe he did well, merely that McCain was poor)  I don't believe Huckabee will take much traction from his Iowa win, since the people who backed him to the win there (evangelicals and social conservatives) aren't exactly out in force in New Hampshire.  As with Iowa Guiliani is doing poorly in early states (at the very least) Paul is a terrible candidate who won't win.  Thompson has a similar situation as Huckabee, except that the people who might have supported him, have nearly all switched over to huckabee. 

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