All entries for Thursday 21 April 2011

April 21, 2011

Good decison is not neccesarily good outcome

Robust decisions are based in good decision analysis, we cannot think that decision making as a process is the same that decision trees analysis or grid analysis or any other methodology; therefore we cannot compare the process with the tool or the technique.

The tools that are available to analyze the decision problems have been designed to help the decision maker to see and understand the big picture of the situation including any potential risk, the complexity of the situation as its dynamic, and not to base his/her decision in a basic judgment. (Matheson J.E 2005)

However I think that when we choose one of those tools to analyze the decision problems, in one way we are using our judgment about the tool, like for example, if the information that i have available of the problem, include probabilities so Decision trees would be a good tool to use, and so forth; and from that point of view maybe we are missing some important elements of other tools.

The point would be then,  that regardless a good or bad outcomes, we can  make good decisions, Using of course  tools and methodologies,  taking into consideration risks, uncertainty or any fact that impact the problem we are analyzing, also involving people who has the knowledge of the situation and finally but not less our own judgment.

April 2011

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