November 24, 2004

An update on the quorum dream

Follow-up to The dream of quorate elections and referenda from A blog for me

Hmmmmm, have been talking progress with several people today. When asked where I thought we needed to be I said (from instinct):

900 tomorrow morning will leave us in a difficult but not disastourous position. 1000 tomorrow morning should give us a good chance, but is no guarantee of reaching quorum.

Having said this I became slightly confused as to why this makes any sense, there is only 100 difference, but on reflection here is why it actually makes quite a lot of sense:

With a quorum of 1889, 944 will see us half way there. Call this 950 for sake of argument half way between the two. Thus if you are on 900 you have lost approximately a vote an hour (which will see approximately 100 under by the end of polling) but if you are on 1000 you have gained approximately a vote an hour. (which would see you approx 100 over by the end).

This of course assumes voting is distributed evenly over the days, but to me this depends on how hard people are campaigning throughout the time. Hence, with warning 900 is recoverable but 1000 is not a guarantee.

Anyway, today (until 4:30) went well. I'm at home again now, away from the figures again, so can't report further until tomorrow.

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