March 21, 2014

Robust Decision Making– 2nd Reflection

After 2 days of module, our tutor expected us to learn every tool, their applicability, and choose the suitable tools for Wave riders case study. When I saw first the case, I thought that it is not going to be very challenging; however, after I read all of the scenario and its possibilities, it gets complicated.

We as team C decided to distribute the each tool on the module notes to every member of our team, before we jumped to deal with the case, because we aimed to spend time effectively. In the forthcoming days, we discussed interactively these robust decision tools, and compared their usefulness. We eliminated some of the tools such as expert systems, because we thought some of them were not suitable for Wave Riders. The presentation is supposed to answer basically two questions: which location we have to choose and which marketing strategy we should deploy.

LOCATION

Even though the case looked complicated due to different possibilities, to make sense of it, we decided to use the decision tree, which analyses different options and their possibilities. There was a small conflict about converting all of the case to decision tree, because decision tree in some cases limited us, such as buying factory and equipment in advance for developing the prototype. After agreeing in the team, I prepared a detailed discount cash flow analysis to overcome this confusion. For the quantitative analysis, we reinforced our decision tree with this analysis which investigates every possible cases’ net present values. From the financial perspective, Lymington is the best choice for all of the scenarios, because it has a,lower investment risk, and higher expected estimated net present values (probabilities are taken in consideration).

From the qualitative perspective, SWOT alone is a great tool for understanding situation. To decide to continue this project or not, so we used it, showing us the investment’s strength, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. After that, we defined our significant criteria for location, such as geography, and warehousing, and prepared a weighted matrix. Weighted matrix helped us to compare each location in terms of each defined criteria, and Lymington got the highest point from the qualitative perspective, so we chose Lymington too.

MARKETING

Before we jumped into marketing tools, we prepared an agenda for marketing. According to our plan, we had to determine the target customer profile, and then find the appropriate marketing tools to achieve this customer group, and finally utilize the marketing budget efficiently. To determine which marketing tool(s) should be used, we exploited from the one of the robust decision making tools called SMART. After we chose our tools with respect to the results from SMART, we had to decide that how much we are going to spend. By researching the every tool’s possible annual cost, and I believe that we utilize efficiently the marketing budget.


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