The mystery surrounding the month-long gap between FMD cases seems at least partially solved. DEFRA note that the lesions on the most recently-culled infectious premise in Surrey were a couple of weeks old. That farm is just outside the old surveillance zone, and it seems that the farmer failed to spot the FMD symptoms in his animals; this provides an explanation of where the infection we saw on the 12th came from. Very embarrasing for the farmer concerned, of course, but from an epidemiologist’s point of view, somewhat of a relief – we now have a scenario that explains why FMD has re-appeared over a month after the last farm was culled out, and it isn’t one of the nightmare ones I was worried about when I wrote my previous entry.
Separately, a temporary control zone has been established near Solihull. I’ll stick my neck out here, and say that I don’t expect FMD to be confirmed.