All 10 entries tagged Rd
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March 21, 2014
As I wrote, decision making, even using quantitative tools, is subjective to some extent. So there is no much I want to discuss how we should use these tools in this bolg. What I want to say is how to combine the goals and tools.
One of our mates' presentation used little tools for marketing decision, and for our group, we seems like spend too much on using tools to solve the problem rather than analysing our target audience. This is what the greenhand always do - forget the problem or forget the tools.
I once went to a career fair when the speaker asked some questions and got answers are all those tools, he said what we need to do is internalize those tools. That is you actually are using the tools but people cannot really feel like that, it means tools are only tools to support your logic rather than a presentation full of tools without own ideas.
I think this is really important, but how to achieve it is hard. For me, the only way to achieve it is to experience more and practice more, so that we can understand how to apply each tools in different situations. Then we can wisely internalize these tools and only using them to support our logics.
Actually, it is very hard to write about how we can use these desicion tools. It is because that we have described them in example in Waverider case study. After seeing all different presentations from different gourps, I can see there are big differences between each group towards the same topic. The way people choose tools are different and tools everyone selected are different, also the way people conduct them are highly different.
What I see id that, there is no real 'right' chioce. these are just people's different way to see different choices. Even for the decision tree, it is at least affacted by the price changes. For AHP, we can clearly see how different groups choose different criteria for the settled two alternatives. I think how they choose criteria, no matter criteria for locations or media channels, reflect how their value and idea about the product and company. This is why I think professions are very important when make a decision.
Sometimes consultants in big companies complain that managers in their client companies dont want to listen their suggestions. After learning, experiencing, and especially comparing, the decision making processes, I can tell that is because managers always think what the consultants know is only the tools, but they dont know the reality in companies. So to be a really good consultant is very hard. It is not bacause you have to know all the tools and select them wisely and learn your costumers situation asap, but it is because you must be able to use this tools wisely and tell the exact problems your clients have. If you really can tell the real problem under the messy phenomenon and when they think you identify something they can feel but cannot tell, they will listen to your suggestions. Actually, to be a good consultant is my dream career, but after this module, I realize there are so much I need to learn about decision making and problem solving.
March 20, 2014
What: We learnd a lot of decision making methods in classes and try to selects some for waverider. When we prepare the presentation, we dont know how to choose from these. then a question was raised up, that is are these methods always good? I guess not. They are beneficial when you use it properly - obveriously this is a universal rule.
Why important: I think the preparation for Waverider is a very general practice, but at the same time, it is very practical. It tells us 1st, not always stick to those what you are familiar with or fall into confirmation traps; 2nd we need to decide how to choose methods for each decisions - which is not usualy happen in real life, that is because, we all getting used to work content and ways to deal with them, so its hard to experience the choosing in real work life; 3rd through choosing methods and using it, we can really learn them.
How to use it: 1st I think I ll always remember that different questions should adopt different methods to deal with it. 2nd, different methods have their different advantages and disadvantages.
(1) grid - is using for when we have more than 2 choices and more natures of choices can be evaluated. It is very clear but the marks you give to each nature is totlly due to experiences, which may not very reliable. Its extension EMV expected monetary value is much better coz it can calculate real numbers, but sometimes, as the numbers are estimations, the variance of the calculation is also big/ it also forget risk aversion factors.
(2) trade off - trade off is also clear and easy to conduct. However, since it related to award score to each advantages and disadvantages, it needs real professionals to involve to ensure the results.
(3) paired comparison and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Since AHP also uses paried comparison, they share some similarities. Paired comparisons compare each two in the whole circumstances, which is a better comparison than simply grid. AHP is better because it highlight some important natures that they need, calculate the average of all applicants and compare the average with each applicants. When calculating average, paried comparison is used. Personaly, I think this is a really good and precise methods, because it compares each pairs for each nature to prioritize these natures. It is systemic and precise. I personally think there is one posibility that it may fall is when it cannot be understand and conduct in right way.
(more methods continue...)
March 19, 2014
What: I guess group work and decision making is a really good way to explore real decision making processes and real situations. After learning about decision making in groups, I deliberately observe how we really do in group work. Decision making in groups actually helps us to increase resources and gaining more approaches to reach the results. Also with a group, it is hard to have some big problems, because you may not realize it, but others will help you. However, there are some disadvantages, such as indicidual domination. In our gourp, we dont really have this and we always stay together and everyone try to contribut but not to be more aggressive. There was one time, we have already settled most work, but one person who was late come and give another total different suggection and start to dominate the whole thing. It is hard to say it is good or bad, but it always happens in group work.
Why important: After we graduate or even before we graduate, we may have a lot of times we need to be in a group and disscuss with others. How to make a good group decision making is important, I think this also related to leadership. Because I think in real life there are always a leader who can firstly set the working circumstance for everyone. However, we also have a lot of chances when we need to cooperate without a leader, therefore, we personally all need to realize the advantages and disadvantages of group decision making, so that we can prevent those bias to happen.
How to use it: 1st, we need to recognize advantages and disadvantages happen in group decision making. 2nd try to lessen the disadvantages by recognizing them and deliberately minimizint them. 3rd and also the most importantly, I think we all need to respect co-workers, which can solve a lot of matters.
In class, we studies styles of decision making. When learning it, it seems very easy and general, but when our group sit together and try to make a decision, styles show their significance.
First day we got together, we try to select some tools for Waverider. What we select shows.... availability judgement bias, since we all select those what we are familiar with. Then a mate suggested that, since we need to write about the reasons, we should choose those easily to explain - risk averse. After a long time and after we settle all the tools we want to use, we found that we missed some questions - not really follow the decision making procedures to look at the question first.
If we really think about how we make decisions everyday, we may find that those descriptions and false in books, we think they are easy and stupid but we do it everyday. This tell me how important firstly to realize these bias and fault, then I can deliberately find them in daily life and change them.
March 12, 2014
There is one thing called luck.
Sometimes bad processes may lead to good results, and good processes cannot lead to good outcome. In the taught lecture about decision, we told about the fallacy that good decisions are those that lead to good outcomes.
For me, I think processes is much more inportant than outcomes. it is because that i always believe, a good outcome can be led once or twice, but if you want to stand long, you must have some good processes to support. and if you have a good process, maybe one or two times you cannot achieve a good outsome, but it will always have a very good basis and you will always make it!
When we talk about it, it seems easy. However, it always happen in our life and we cannot prevent ourselves to resist it. For example, some companies use bad materials to cut cost, so they have better compatitiveness. Maybe one day or two you may still stick to yuor thoughts, but how long can you keep?
Howver, I still believe that we should always first build up a good process so that with a good basis, there is a chance to win in long-term, no matter for person or company.
Ideological Immunity always happens to those educated and intelligent adults. I think that is because they have already have formed their own concept about everything, which is always right, so it is hard for them to renew them. This also happens in companies. If one company mainly focus on mass production and always modify and improve it, and the results are great, it will have less enthusiasm to think about customized production. The company has already got its good pattern to do things, so it wont willing to change.
For me, the best way to solve it is that (1) with a stable structure, to slightly modify element within the structure. I dont really agree to rebuild one's thought, it is because that since he is a successful man, his thinking methods actually has been checked though his way to go success. Everyone has their shortage, so it is no sense to push oneself into another person. Also,(2) to truly hear other's suggestions. I once disscussed a related topic in class. I said that what a leader should do is that he build a structure by himself and listen to others, but always end up with his original methods. Then my teacher asked me, are you really listen to others? I then realized that, in this way, if the leader never ever really listen and gain good aspects from other's suggestions, the listening is useless.
Therefore, for me, I think people may have ideological immunity, but they dont really need to rebuild his or her structure, but he or she really needs to carefully listen other's view so that could modify his or her opinions.
When we study about how to make decisions, the critical thinking method is one of the most critial thing we need to remember. We need to assess literature, arguments, and raw fata to obtain data. In this process, I think we really need to remember 'backgroud' of these data all the time.
E.H. Carr said that history is an endding diologue between the past and the present. That means, when people give some argumetns or say something, they are always in a certain cercumstance. Therefore, if we ignore the backgoudn and just take the argument, there must be somthing we missed.
I was a kind of people who like to read literature without knowing any background. I justify it as we need to understand the pure content of the write wrote rather than interpret it. There was also s stream in literature who really support this method. However, later I found that I cannot undestand why some simple work has been given so much reputation. After I know the background, I see the differences.
I learn from critical thinking and my experience that we always need to consider background, no matter we are writing or we are doing literary review.
I this class is really interesting if you can combnine what happen in daily life and businesses into these thoeries. What impress me a lot is the concept about anchoring. About the video, the very unrelated bumbers on pingpong balls can definately affect expected priceof a bottle of wine.
What I have witness about anchoring is that, how the fashion brand Coach entered C hina. Coach is not a high-end brand in US, but it turned out to be a high-end brand in China. This is its market strategy. It firstly set the anchor for Chinese that this is a high-end product. People then know the reality, but the bar has been set, then there is little chance to change it.
Besides business world, it also happen in real life. Once a girl friend of mine ask me that why her boyfriend always treat her bad. After she told me what she did, I then said to her this is an anchor... Because her first boyfriend treated her bad and then it turns out to be kind of a pattern for her. She always want to do thing to please her boyfriend, but she cannot recognize it. Her unconcious behavior then also affect her later boyfriends.
There are a lot of times anchors are set up by others or ourselves. Therefore, as a business man, we need to carefully think about our brand positioning and as a person, we need to realize that there are some limitations which are only set by ourselves, and we really can break it and achieve much better.
Yesterday we learned about judgement - judgement heuristics, different types of judgement, judgement bias and strategies to prevent bias. This class is relatively gerneral but really contains numous problems that happens everyday in our lives. What I feel most is about the confirmation trap, which means we always seek and believe what we believe.
It happens in Chinese folk adages. there was one passege which pick lots of contrast ideas and supported each side with numous chinese old folk adages. What I learn is that, in our lives, we need to realize there are a lot of realities and old sayings to support one thing. However, we should not just fall to those traps, because the speakers are using all materials that supports him or her but ignore other informations. This will be very useful when we hear any information from any resourse. We need to critically think about it.
It also happens when we write papaers. I believe this is a very common thing in any students life. when I was very young, teachers start to tell us how to write a passage, which is mostly baguwen (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight-legged_essay). You have a topic and you need to find 2-3 main arguments to support it and use examples or statistics to justify them. But actually, my experience is that, we dont have any resource so we just recite those special books for writing these passages. they collet all different materials to support common arguments.... It's so funny when I look back. It seems like one speak to himself.... Later I learnt about MECE (Mutually Exclusive And Collectively Exhaustive), I realized how to select and prioritise the arguments and confirm they could cover all aspects. At that time, we write what we know and believe, but never even think about the other side. What I learnt is that, we should always examine both sides. It is not like finding things to support myself, but open my mind to learn and modify my own perspective. I believe this is the only way we could keep learning and growing even when we leave school and become older, that is because everyday we need to make judgement and make decisions.