All entries for Sunday 06 March 2016
March 06, 2016
We make decisions everyday of our lives, we decide from simple things like where to go to eat with our friends to more complex ones like in which country to live, what career to have or whether getting married or not. However, most of our decisions are made using our intuitive system 1, instead of using a rational process (system 2).
The problem is that our judgement is biased because we use heuristics (strategies to make our decision process quicker), so when we use system 1 we are more likely to make BAD decisions. To identify how good is our judgement in relation with the heuristics we answered 12 questions in the first class and from that I could find out that my representativeness heuristic is not working fine at all, it seems that my estimations on samples and comparison of things with my mental stereotypes are not very accurate so I should not relay on them.
The good thing is that now I know that this bias can affect my decision making process and to avoid it I should be open and consider all the possible relevant data, be aware of the base rate and learn that likelihood is different to probability.
Off course it is better to use our system 2 when making decisions; however, our heuristics and some other aspects such as our personality, the process and the tools we use will always be present to affect our decision. So at the end of the three days of study, I end up with the conclusion that RDM is not something simple, to make robust decisions one needs to be aware of all the things that can make my decision non-optimal and try to balance those points to ensure that the decision can be as good as possible.
I believe is very uselful to use system 2 more often and try to be more rational about our personal life decisions, I used once one of the decision methods to decide if I should accept a job and move back to my home town or not, and I think it provided me with the opportunity to think more about my criteria, the two alternatives and future effects of that decision, so even when the decision wasn't 100% perfect (decision making is not exact science), it is a better decision just for the sake of leaving system 1 behind.