All entries for Friday 18 March 2011

March 18, 2011

Personality shape decision much more than any theory in the world!!

Today after class have finish, we decided to play around with some decision making ideas and the fascinating thing that came out to me was that personality was much more imporatnt than theory.  One very clear example is seeing if the personality of the person is risk averse or risk lover. We were making a bet of -50 to 75 on a coin flip.. despite being very clear without using much tool that the gamble have a positive expected in which reasoning state that we should always attempted, yet many of the people back off and think it wasn't good.  ANother example can be a coin flip of 0 and 100 pounds or a guaruntee figure of as little as 20 or 30.  Many people woudl take the sure money.

What am trying to say is that people commend to wht they believe and their value in tools are only use to help formed their style of personality.


Assumption Assumption Assumption!!

Looking back at  the different results in the class, one of the main issue that came to mind in which create this different is because of different assumptions in each group.  However, in our group point of view, we tried to base as much information on the data given as much as possible, avoiding to create assumption because it is one of the easiest way to create biased into decision.  Amazingly, after i have heard seven other presentations, people have made multiple assumption or some even to the level of extreme in my poitn of view which was creative, but yet unrealistic to me.  The reason was becasue i believe assumption create uncertainty, and at the end uncertainty is one of the casue for non robust decision. 

However, don't get me wrong because am not claiming either way is better because sometime creating assumption can lead to creativity and even higher optimal point than whihc could be created without.  However, it come with more risks.  ALl in all i believe that there are never a wrong decision in the world but it all solely depend on the personality and goal trying to be achieve by the team or person dealing with the issue.


What is the best tool?

Argument was going on toward the end of class between who made the best decision... along with which tool was the best tool in creating these results.  Many people claim that some tools are better than other, some even argue that decision making tree does not hold any bias!! which to me is completely untrue in all of the statement above.  From personal experience in working with the tool, i believe that there are two main criteria in which determine what is the best tool.  The two main criteria are the scenario or problem were facing, along with the expertise and the style of the team or person who is approaching this problem.  SOme may be better with quantitative, some maybe better in qualitative... these things very much varies.

Overall, i believe that there are definitely not one best tool, or else there is no point creating other tools but just follow the best one all the TIME!!!


Group thinking… very dangerous situation which are very hard to avoid

One of the main problem i find toward every group work am in along with every team activity i do in life, group thinking have become a very vital factor.  I used to think that discussion and group ideas were always better.  However, since the module occur, i have been spectating and have seen that the two main issue always arise which are anchoring the idea in which people just try to adjust from there, and that people are likely to be influence by group pressure or the larger party or even the one who is known to be the smartest one. 

The reason i brought this whole case up was because we were playing a video game in which require 5 people per side. Everyone have their own view of playing, but when the so called "best" plaer in the team suggested one idea, everyone tend to just agree because no one would dare disagree despite knowing the flawed of it thinking that they don't want to take the blame if it goes wrong.  The result end up in disaster.  How do we really overcome this situation?

I've tried to link his with thte last module of leadership that a safe environment will be important that no one fear to suggest idea and express, however there were not really an emerging leader but it was more of contigency personality lead thus the quiet one will also stay quiet. 

This barrier is so hard to break through in order to create a success in group work.  Can it really be done or we just have to let the quiet person realize and start acting upon their role??


March 2011

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