May 06, 2005

The next conservative leader

D Davis 3/1
M Rifkind 7/1
L Fox 8/1
A Lansley 10/1
A Duncan 10/1
O Letwin 12/1
D Cameron 12/1
W Hague 14/1
T May 16/1
G Osborne 20/1
M Ancram 20/1
J Bercow 20/1
D Willetts 25/1
D Maclean 25/1
C Spelman 25/1
B Jenkin 25/1
A Norman 25/1
T Yeo 33/1
K Clarke 33/1
F Maude 33/1
E Vaizey 33/1
A Widdicombe 40/1
S Dorrell 50/1
J Redwood 66/1
I Duncan Smith 66/1
B Johnson 66/1
J Kirkbride 66/1
N Soames 100/1

It'll be Liam Fox – always bet on the third favourite.

Much respect to Redwood failing to be on better odds than Johnson.


- 14 comments by 1 or more people Not publicly viewable

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  1. The thing is none of those really have what it takes, and that's the Tories' great problem.

    06 May 2005, 15:56

  2. …and the greatest asset to the country.

    06 May 2005, 17:12

  3. Peter J Thomas

    Davis everytime

    06 May 2005, 17:25

  4. I'm really hoping David Davis gets it. RaW interviewed him last week and we asked him about his chances and whether he wanted the job. Very interesting interview which will get replayed over and over if he's chosen.

    06 May 2005, 17:29

  5. What's particularly shocking (well, it isn't really, because it was the same case last time) is the number of figures there who I have personally never heard of.

    06 May 2005, 18:42

  6. What's particularly shocking (well, it isn't really, because it was the same case last time) is the number of figures there who I have personally never heard of.

    I've heard of all of those except E. Vaizey (whoever (s)he may be).

    06 May 2005, 19:03

  7. I know of Vaizey, but Bercow, Willetts and Maclean are all unknown to me, and some even higher on the list, such as Lansley, Cameron and Osborne, are people whom I know very little of, and certainly couldn't put a face to the name.

    06 May 2005, 20:36

  8. John Bercow was right-wing but has moved to the left. David Willetts went to the same school as Enoch Powell (and Jonathan Coe, incidentally…), is nicknamed 'Two Brains' cos he's a bit clever and by all accounts is not too clever. The others you mention I don't know. Why isn't Letwin shorter odds? I'd have thought he'd have been one of the favourites. Ken Clarke is actually the best bet the Tories have, but given that Howard resigned because he was too old, then it would be a bit odd for Clarke, an older man, to lead the party. Still, a similar thing happened with Wilson/Callaghan in the 70s, I think.

    If we are following the Labour in the 80s analogy, then Hague/Duncan Smith = Michael Foot, Howard = Neil Kinnock, so now they need a John Smith figure to get them back to parity before dying. Yep, Clarke is the man. And of course, the favourite never ever wins the Tory leadership election.

    06 May 2005, 21:59

  9. Letwin has stated that he won't be running for the position, although he seemed in a rather odd mood during the interview, so you never know.

    06 May 2005, 22:06

  10. Yeah, if he's said he's not standing, I'll back him to win. How many of the above 28 have senior ministerial experience? Not many.

    06 May 2005, 22:18

  11. Yeah, if he's said he's not standing, I'll back him to win. How many of the above 28 have senior ministerial experience? Not many.

    Off the top of my head: Rifkind, Hague, Ancram, Yeo, Clarke, Maude, Dorrell, and Redwood have been in the cabinet, and Widdicombe and Soames have been ministers.

    06 May 2005, 23:07

  12. The problem is that they need an experienced figure who hasn't been tainted by strong associations with failed past Tory experiments. That rules out Rifkind, Redwood, Widdicombe and Hague for sure, though the latter would be an interesting and perhaps successful choice.

    07 May 2005, 01:34

  13. The problem is that they need an experienced figure who hasn't been tainted by strong associations with failed past Tory experiments. That rules out Rifkind, Redwood, Widdicombe and Hague for sure, though the latter would be an interesting and perhaps successful choice.

    Those criteria rule out practically every Tory MP; personally if I were them, I'd go for Rifkind as he hasn't been in Parliament for the past 8 years and so hasn't become run down by perpetual opposition. He's had exerience in government but it was long enough ago that people won't necessarily remember him very well as he never had the sort of profile of Michael Howard. He also has a safe seat. But hey, if the Tories want to commit hari kiri by electing someone like David Davis, I won't mourn their demise, instead, I'll follow the advice of the Queen of Darkness herself and 'rejoice, rejoice.'

    07 May 2005, 01:39

  14. Yes, I'd much prefer the Tories to follow their current trend of picking the wrong option each time.

    07 May 2005, 01:50


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