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March 13, 2016

Decision making reflection 2

For the group exercise on WaveRiders, we started with team member profilling in the enlightment of Luca's idea, through which we knew more about ourselves and group members in the way I have never thought before. Carl Jung’s and Isabel Briggs Myers’ typological approach to personality helped us to understand communication and learning styles of our types so that we could benefit and compensate from each other. The test result showed that we are all extrovert over introvert in different level and intuitive over sensing in a moderate degree, which told us we are likely to follow intuition and make decision based on internal and imaginative world rather than external sources. The cognative bias test also showed we have similar tendancy of falling into outcome bias and choice-selective bias. After the test, we reminds ourself to make decision based on rational and solid source rather than gambling on our feelings, and everytime after deciding on which tools to use, we reviewed our decision again in case fall into choice-selective bias.

Throughout the decision making process, every step forward was a decision to be made and we could only answer the final question step by step. The challenge is not about the final decision on location or specific marketing strategies, it is about the tools we used, because different tools will probably lead to the different decisions. Especially for marketing strategy decision, our biased feeling about the final decision would probably alter the tools we try to use. For example, if we believe our target audinece is more of internet-driven, we tend to look for the evidence of internet preference that proving our feeling is right; if we believe the people who can afford yacht are richer and older and like to read books, we are inclined to look for magazine preference to prove our thoughts. Therefore, starting an unbias date collection process is fairly important even before deciding on the tools.

With all the decision-making tools, I felt we struggled a little bit on which tools to use depending on the questions because several tools are quite similar such as SMART and AHP. In the end we decided to use AHP, but i m writing the blog now, I am wondering why didnt we ever think about using both tools to analyze the marketing strategy decision and see whether it yields the same result. We basically made decisions based on clockwise process -define objectives and generate decision-relecent information and then revisit choices and objectives, but probably in the real world, we are expected to add on to this general approach and run the analyse backward to test our decision- that is, beginning with a proosed deciaion and test plans again different plaustic future.

March 06, 2016

Decision making

Decision making is an inevitable process in all personal and orgnaizational aspects, while organizations must endeavour to make as good decision as possible to achieve excellence.

How many choices did you make today? or this week? - Average is 70 per day. How many decision CEOs need to make per week and how long do they take for each choice? We are making decisions everyday from small to big and we may think we can do well. There are studies showing that on average every CEO have to make 139 decisions per week and 50% of the decisions were made in an 9 mins or less, only 12% of decisions took them an hour or more. The questions arise here. In this choice overload world, how well do you think the choices are managed? How many choices are made through robust and rational process? In fact, most of people make decision based on intuition and instinct most of time. The feeling of deep uncertainty may come from their not knowing of key parties' preference, the system model or opportunity cost prediction. Robust Decision Making can help to delivery rational decisions with systematic analysis.

The key idea is to start with defining goals and uncertainties, select candidate strategeis, estimate performance of strategies in many futures, explore various senarios and characterize the vulnerabilities of strategies, finally evaluate tradeoffs and make the decision. It is much easier said than done. We have covered a huge range of decision making tools in the lecture, however deciding which tools to use is the first decision to be made before tackling any problems in any situations. Information also plays a key role in decision making process where data collection needs to be accurate and effective enough to ensure the quality of the decision. However in the information overloaded world, choosing from useful information and identifying the optimum point through cost and benefit analysis are vital.

Decision making are everywhere, selecting the right methodology is the most significant and very first decision to be made. Wrong methods will definately lead to the wrong decision and organization will have to suffer and take the consequences if that happens. Design for Six Sigma is intend to do things right for the first time instead of spending a fortune to rectify the problems resulted from wrong decisions. Deming also proposed Plan-Do-Check-Act aiming to minimize the impact of wrong decisions. Making robust decisions are therefore an improtant task in industry.

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