Decision making
Decision making is an inevitable process in all personal and orgnaizational aspects, while organizations must endeavour to make as good decision as possible to achieve excellence.
How many choices did you make today? or this week? - Average is 70 per day. How many decision CEOs need to make per week and how long do they take for each choice? We are making decisions everyday from small to big and we may think we can do well. There are studies showing that on average every CEO have to make 139 decisions per week and 50% of the decisions were made in an 9 mins or less, only 12% of decisions took them an hour or more. The questions arise here. In this choice overload world, how well do you think the choices are managed? How many choices are made through robust and rational process? In fact, most of people make decision based on intuition and instinct most of time. The feeling of deep uncertainty may come from their not knowing of key parties' preference, the system model or opportunity cost prediction. Robust Decision Making can help to delivery rational decisions with systematic analysis.
The key idea is to start with defining goals and uncertainties, select candidate strategeis, estimate performance of strategies in many futures, explore various senarios and characterize the vulnerabilities of strategies, finally evaluate tradeoffs and make the decision. It is much easier said than done. We have covered a huge range of decision making tools in the lecture, however deciding which tools to use is the first decision to be made before tackling any problems in any situations. Information also plays a key role in decision making process where data collection needs to be accurate and effective enough to ensure the quality of the decision. However in the information overloaded world, choosing from useful information and identifying the optimum point through cost and benefit analysis are vital.
Decision making are everywhere, selecting the right methodology is the most significant and very first decision to be made. Wrong methods will definately lead to the wrong decision and organization will have to suffer and take the consequences if that happens. Design for Six Sigma is intend to do things right for the first time instead of spending a fortune to rectify the problems resulted from wrong decisions. Deming also proposed Plan-Do-Check-Act aiming to minimize the impact of wrong decisions. Making robust decisions are therefore an improtant task in industry.