November 04, 2004

Post–election statistical anomaly

A friend in Southern California has done a statistical analysis on several swing states, and found a perfect and suggestive correlation. Compared to exit polls, every state that implemented e-voting in a way that provided no independent paper trail shows Bush getting around 5% more in the "actual" result.

By contrast, in every state where e-voting has an independent paper audit trail, the exit poll and "actual" results are within the margin of error.

Kinda makes you think…

For stats folks with time on their hands – look for districts with Diebold machines…

J.


- 5 comments by 2 or more people Not publicly viewable

  1. Saxon

    Unsirprising when the Diebold CEO is on record as "committed to delivering votes to the President"

    04 Nov 2004, 12:44

  2. Androm

    Is this study available anywhere on the internet?

    04 Nov 2004, 13:57

  3. Jonathan Cave

    Not yet, but I'll post when I know more.

    04 Nov 2004, 14:09

  4. This is probably not what you were talking about, but it is very, very interesting nonetheless:

    Link

    It appears there are differences between counties that use touch-screen or optical scanning of ballot papers: "the only variable that accounted for a swing toward Republican voting was the use of optical-scan machines, whereas counties with touch-screen machines generally didn't swing – regardless of size." The scanning machines are also run by Diebold…

    It's certainly worth looking at the links in the first 1/3 of the article – there is some interesting information there. Other points – why were the exit polls wrong? On the basis of exit polls, Bush had already been told he had lost the election…

    09 Nov 2004, 17:53

  5. Jonathan Cave

    Thank you Owen. This makes very interesting reading. I knew there had to be a way to blame Bill Gates for this…

    10 Nov 2004, 14:34


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