January 11, 2006

What does the International Community expect Iran to do?

Iran is really in a catch-22 situation:

1) It (potentially) builds nuclear weapons. The UN levies sanctions, US eventually invades with an "international coalition".

2) It ceases everything. The US eventually invades.

What would you do if you were Iran given that:

1) The US lumped Iran along with Iraq and NK in the Axis of Evil speech. Iraq was invaded and didn't have nuclear weapons. America will clearly never invade NK despite having a strong presence on her doorstep because she has nuclear weapons.

2) Despite Syria hopping on one leg, rolling on the floor, begging at the US's command, the US is still extremely hostile towards the country. And will probably invade or use Israel as proxy.


- 4 comments by 1 or more people Not publicly viewable

  1. Poor little Iran. My heart bleeds.

    Cease development, let UN inspectors in without restrictions (as Iraq didn't), and Iran will be fine.

    At the moment, Iran is doing exactly the opposite.

    11 Jan 2006, 10:39

  2. Iraq had done so in the past and the US had essentially used the inspections program as a means to gather information on Iraq (read "espionage") which the US later used in the Lewinsky-bombing of 1998 and in the subsequent Second Gulf War to target any remaining Iraqi infrastracture (and not nuclear sites, but strategic sites).

    How can Iran, as a sovereign nation which has not, to my knowledge, been at war since the US last shot down one of its passenger planes (signalling the end of the Iran-Iraq War) trust that the same will not be done now – ie Inspection teams used to collect information not just on Iranian nuclear progress but also strategic information damaging to Iran's sovereignty?

    Moreover, why should Iran subjugate herself to such international restrictions and sanctions when the only other regional power, Israel, has developed a large stockpile of nuclear weaponry and has the gall to consistently threaten the sovereignty of other nations (ie threats to bomb Syria and Iran at the drop of a hat) has blankly stated that no inspection teams will ever be allowed in Israel?

    11 Jan 2006, 12:04

  3. Moreover, why should Iran subjugate herself to such international restrictions and sanctions when the only other regional power, Israel, has developed a large stockpile of nuclear weaponry and has the gall to consistently threaten the sovereignty of other nations (ie threats to bomb Syria and Iran at the drop of a hat) has blankly stated that no inspection teams will ever be allowed in Israel?

    Because Israel is a democracy and is never going to use its weapons to hold the West to ransom.

    And to be honest, I would rather like the US/UN to know about Iran's 'strategic' plans. I see nothing wrong with that. Iran is not a friendly country, and we shouldn't be treating it as though it is.

    11 Jan 2006, 22:53

  4. .bq Because Israel is a democracy and is never going to use its weapons to hold the West to ransom.

    Except in 1973… when it did precisely that…

    Israel isn't really a democracy… more like a semi-democratic theocracy and, in another view where the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza are unrecognized members of the state, annexed in terms of land but not in terms of rights, then Israel is an apartheid state.

    And no, Arab-Israelis do not enjoy rights on par with Jewish Israelis.

    1) Only Jews (no matter where they are from) are granted the right to become automatic members of the state (and are actively encouraged to do so).

    2) The laws regarding property and land heavily discriminate against the Arab population. Arab-majority areas are not granted anywhere near as much in terms of development funding as Jewish-majority areas. Arab cities and towns are restricted from expanding. Jewish areas are encouraged. Even though Arabic is considered a national language, the majority of signposts are in Hebrew and English. Arabic history is not taught in schools, but mostly Jewish history which predominently takes place outside of the country in which they reside.

    3) State investment simply does not go into Arabic education, hospitals etc, but is preserved for Jewish institutions.

    4) Non-Jewish Arabs (with exceptions among the Druze and Bedu) cannot join the Army.

    5) Including the West Bank and Gaza, illegally held but for all intents and purposes fully annexed, 80% of the Arabic population of the country is denied fundamental rights, the ability to expand, freedom from oppression etc.

    More South-African than European democracy.

    But, back to Iran, you have your worries and you don't seem to be downplaying your own realpolitik, which is fair enough. However, from Iran's perspective, would you not agree that the solution most in her interest is to obtain a nuclear deterrent as quickly as possible? I'm not talking about with regards to the safety of the rest of the world, the UK or the US - but Iran's own best interests as a prevention against invasion etc.

    In short, if the UK was living next to an aggressive and nuclear-equipped France, would you be for the UK's development of nuclear weapons?

    11 Jan 2006, 23:43


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