January 21, 2006

Iran learns from History

Writing about web page http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/nuclear_iran_dc;_ylt=AilWUjm3fj.d8BKhBPWGzV2s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--

If you leave aside the President's recent remarks and take a look at Iran's actions alone, it is clear that she is, perhaps, taking the most sensible course for the preservation of her own sovereignty and her own security… In other words she's quite clearly drawn lessons from America's previous actions concerning modern warfare.

One of them is that she won't attack a nation with a possible nuclear deterrent. (North Korea)

Another is that she will make sure that the foreign assets are strictly controlled and, possibly, used for America's own purposes. (Iraq).

It'll be interesting to see how Iran continues to prepare in the coming months.

- 5 comments by 1 or more people Not publicly viewable

  1. It doesn't matter what Iran does. The Israelis know a lot more about Iran's nuclear ambitions than the Americans and they will blow to smithereens anything that looks suspect before anyone else can even blink.

    21 Jan 2006, 20:00

  2. I don't think Israel would strike Iran without direct American backing (i.e. direct military intervention as opposed to verbal support), simply because we're not talking about the same sort of situation as the Osirak reactor. Iran's facilities have greater anti-aircraft defences, are much better prepared for such a scenario and Iran is more capable a military power than Iraq was in the 1980s. Combined with the likelihood that Iran will react with not just conventional military means, but through the support of a guerilla response, Israel does not have the capability to escape unscathed from another attack of such a kind.

    21 Jan 2006, 20:29

  3. Gareth Herbert

    Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that any military strike would only be part of a coordinated international effort and that they will not act unilaterally. I don't think it will come to that, right now there are plenty of other channels open for pursuit.

    23 Jan 2006, 02:58

  4. Well, with technology superior to even the Americans, all it takes it an unmanned drone or two with a bunker buster bomb and any centrifuges/processing plants will be in ruins. The Iranians won't be able to prove anything. We shall see.

    23 Jan 2006, 22:15

  5. Flo

    All this talk about bombing is actually a lot of hot air. The fact remains that Iran has learnt from the Osirak episode in the eighties. They have not two or three but more like 30–40 sites that are relevant to their programme, no one really knows all of them. Furthermore, they are often safely stored in bunkers undergound which makes it hard to find and destroy them. Any attempt would need a huge amount of air-fire-power including all the fighter planes to take out air defense. Even if someone was stupid enough to try it it would provoke a direkt response in Isreal through iranian proxies Hezbollah, aswell as rocket attacks and more. Hence we would have a full scale war on our hands not comparable to the clinical operation at Osirak.

    03 Feb 2006, 08:25

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