March 19, 2017

Robust decision making – group work

Implementing desicion making tools in a case study situation is not as easy as it might have seemed at the beginning. First of all, the contradictory data regarding dates and impossible deadlines for production start forced us to take some assumtions. Additionally we had in minds our first set of decisions - to continue the project and to manufacture in Lymington. How good were these decisions taken within half an hour on the basis of the wrong incomplete data? Are now biased towards this direction? We try to reset our minds and we will see next week, if the analysis we conduct will confirm them or will lead to different decisions. So where are we now?

While reading the text carefully, we discovered all the steps and nuances in the decision process which made a decision tree very expanded. One team member prepared an excel file with all the numbers which we will use for sure in the decision making process. We just need to add there reasonable assumptions about sales after 2022 and market conditions in 2018. It will be very helpful while calculating NPV for both investments (Lymington & Exmouth). Half of the team started preparing SWOT analysis of two possible locations, but so far we come to the conclusion that we need to do some more research about geography and demographics of the places. What seemed a not too complicated cost-benefit analysis at a very begining, has been growing into a major analysis which requires a set of few different decision making tools. I think it will be good to start next session with silent brainstorming and encourage everybody to be critical and express their opinions, in order to avoid groupthinking. During the coming days we need to collect all possible data, make as reliable as possible assumptions and finally make robust decisions for WaveRiders. I am looking forward to see the results of our and other groups work on Friday!


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