All 11 entries tagged Rdm

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April 29, 2011

Danger of Bias

Talking about bias in RDM PMA reminds me that during IMV our team traps in several biases that affect our decision-making as the multiplier effect. It starts with representative bias when we try to gather additional data to decide marketing tools by interviewing one or two experts. Then we take it for granted their opinion, which lead our team trap in conformation bias when having discussion in other decision methodology. We were trying to avoid any options that against our preference, which there is no second opinion to confirm our first decision. I think, second opinion is very important to avoid or at least minimize bias that affect our decision making process.

To give you illustration, back in my home country it becomes very common when people went to doctor to get diagnose about their current condition to have second opinion from another doctor just to ensure that she/he got correct diagnose. Even some people looking for third opinion! One side it’s good because you get robust decision, yet it proves that your expert is not reliable and of course wasting some resources such as; time and money!

April 26, 2011

Needs of Role Play in Group Decision–Making

Still struggling with a RDM PMA, I found that during team decision-making process there some judgmental bias occur. Thus, in order to cope this issue, people use brainstorming which very helpful to foster generation of variety idea to solve problems. By having brainstorming it could minimize most bias since critical thinking will be arise in form different point of view and new approach for problem solving. Nevertheless, it also has drawback like groupthink that might occur when team member who has strong characteristic force particular decision and avoid any challenge from other opinion, it also can be categorized as conformation trap that affect final decision. Therefore in order to minimize this issue, I think a role-play called devils' advocate is good way to ensure constructive feedback in place in order to challenge every assumption and options. Thus, as a result team member will encourage thinking critically before deciding something.

April 25, 2011

Critical Thinking in Decision–Making

Dealing with RDM PMA, I found something interesting concept about critical thinking as important aspect for decision makers. In my opinion, most decision makers make a decision based on their believe about something which lead them in judgmental bias, for instance conformation trap or anchor heuristic. Thus, in order to avoid this potential issue, decision makers should employ critical thinking whenever make decision. Critical thinking means, decision makers analyze, evaluate and challenge what they belief in particular subject in order to minimize bias and make certain judgment in objective manner. By having this approach in mind, decision makers will able improve the quality of the decision itself. However, it will probably depend on the leadership style of decision makers. Let say, the leader is autocratic. She/he will not listen to any input from  followers which lead to foster creation of judgmental bias when a decision need to be made since leader will rely on her/his intuition or certain knowledge without taking any input from others, which trigger me to conclude, in my opinion, that decision makers’ behavior and leadership style will affect quality of decision.

April 24, 2011

A bizarre PMA

The RDM PMA in my opinion is really-really challenging since it emphasizes on how we critique our decision methodology approach which very limited word compare to other assignments. Thus, it requires our good analysis and decision to consider and choose which parameters should be discussed in PMA. Another decision! Yet, with word limitation in place, we should enhance our communication skill to deliver what we thought in very crystal manner. Hopefully some literature review that I found will help me finish this PMA on time. 

April 12, 2011

Mix Match of Decision Making

Time to reflect about what I have done in last KBAM in module session. In day one, we’ve been asked to act as government of one country that deals with climate change issue, which our main task is to foster that citizen awareness to provide substantial contribution in order make a better world in future, whilst at the same time government should, at least maintain or increase, their credibility for the next election.

The lesson learned that I capture from this exercise is, our team approached based on democratic style which view everybody opinion as integral part before making decision. Yet, there is no leader in our team and we never thought that this element is one of the critical elements in decision-making. At first, we felt that it’s not necessary to have leader with our team, but then we realize in the end of the exercise that by having leader we can create vision act as engine to align individual goals toward achievement the shared goals, which are increase level of awareness of climate change impact and credibility of government.

In the context of the exercise and correlation with module, I feel it’s not directly connected since it’s more emphasized on how we make robust decision-making. Yet, I realize that the connection between exercise and the module lays on ability of policy maker to manage their asset (budget) and knowledge in order to maximize the contribution for each decision taken. Thus, it’s related to another my lesson learned that I’m not utilizing those two critical elements during exercise. As consequence, our output from our decision is slightly disappointed for me in the context of credibility, although we succeed to reach certain level of awareness.

This exercise reminds me that, in every decision that related to many people interest should consider every aspect to manage asset and knowledge in the effective and efficient manner in order to result robust decision. 

March 19, 2011

Reflect.. Reflect.. Reflect..

The RDM module is done, now it’s time to reflect what I learned about it. During the module week, our team struggles to solve the problem that has very limited data and various methods available that not sure which one is the suitable to solve the problem. Thus, our team decides to go with decision tree. This method I admit is the best one to solve the problem since consider every option and calculate future value that company might generate. I like this method since it provides comprehensive outcomes based on limited data and perhaps less bias occur if when we were using this tool. On the other hand, when our team using other method such as; paired comparison, grid, and pareto, there are lot of space for bias since it based on our judgment to rank each of parameters. It happened, perhaps, because team members have their own preference and judgment. Thus, at the same time group thinking might occur when one person has strong characteristic and opinion regarding particular thing. This situation is very inconvenience and might drive team decision into misleading. Nevertheless, our group was able to manage this issue by allowing each individual to speak up their mind and sometimes it takes an hour or more to agree on one parameter. Although it sounds, time consuming but I like it since it fosters critical thinking environment, which I believe has substantial impact for the outcomes.

Additionally, I like to talk about assumption. Our module tutor provides freedom to assume any circumstance that you like to use. Yet, what I pleased about my team is they don’t take for granted about this thing since we were trying to think every possibility that might happen in future. Perhaps, it’s good way to solve the problem since in real life assumption might drive misleading and for sure your organization will not any tolerate any decision that only base on assumption. Thus, I believe that’s why in every decision-making we should consider about sensitivity analysis that considers best-case scenario and worst scenario. By having in mind this approach, we will produce robust decision since our recommendation to top management already considered the every single possibility. That’s why I’m so pleased with our decision tree (47 arms!) great job for my team!!

This module is great, I can’t hardly wait to apply this method in real working environment which more and more complexity will affect our decision strategy and of course expectation to produce robust decision that satisfy not only our boss but also our self.

March 18, 2011

After all of stuff, DECIDE!!!

I remember 2 years ago when I was searching for decent SLR Camera as my new hobby and for your information, there are two big players in this industry, which are NIKON and CANON. Thus, during the decision making time I tried to search as many as I could so I won’t regret at the end.

As you might aware, the cost to purchase this gadget is quite high (almost 1,500 pound) so comprehensive consideration needs to be done. I started to look information from magazine, website, forum and online shopping. Yet, I still can’t decide which brand I should choose! Perhaps to give you illustration about SLR Camera world, I quote a friend of mine that said choosing this gadget like choosing religion! There is no right or wrong answer, there is no better and worst option. Both of products are equally good! So after conducted proper research I reach at the edge of my decision time, but I still confused! Thus, some enlightenment arrive, there is one forum that I will always remember and help me solve this problem, it says, “…after you consider thoroughly these two products, DECIDE!! “

This experience perhaps very related to this module during mini project since we can use all available methodologies to help us solve the problem but the most important thing is timing to decide under certain circumstance and satisfy us as decision maker. As Jeff said during the presentation, these decision making tools are not only focus to solve the problem but emphasize to satisfy decision makers so they happy with decision they made.

Btw, in regards to my decision of choosing this camera I go with NIKON and feel very satisfied with my decision! I think that the most important matter…

My Lesson Learned from Mini Project

It was a great week to have group discussion to solve RDM mini project and some lesson learned I would like to share during this period time.

First is about group thinking, it’s inevitable in every decision that involves more than two people in same situation. Thus, this issue might consider as important factor to influence other group members to decide something. As result, if one person has brilliant or critical idea regarding the project, perhaps he/she will changes his/her minds due to group thinking which might affect the output of the process. Nevertheless, since it working in-group give advantages such as brainstorming to foster idea, the potential issue of group thinking should be minimized by allowing every group member to speak up about their own idea and provide constructive counter if the ide from that particular person is not in line with the whole group idea. Second thing I point out from this module is decision to use particular methodology to solve problem might has potential bias since the person who has authority to decide will try to drive result of each method to meet his/her preference. However, the ability to choose proper and correct decision tools will help to minimize the variation. Third, I was learning that during the decision making process, we should approach using “thinking out of the box” approach and challenge the status quo in order to capture every single possibility of parameters that might affect final output.

Moreover, by having these lessons learned in mind, I believe could enhance the ability to improve the quality of decision-making in my future life by deciding which approach should use (i.e. System 1 or system 2). Nevertheless, there are a lot areas of improvement that I fell need to enhance to have robust decision.

Decision for Decision

Doing the mini project in RDM exercise is provide so many interesting experiences and I feel this application of system 2 thinking is very useful for me to create flawless decision in my future life. I think, if I’ve done this module or at least have proper knowledge regarding decision making technique before I will have different life compare to now. I think, there are so many decision I’ve made in the past rely only on my instinct and my preference without considering any probability that affect if I chose particular decision or if I were using system 2, it’s very limited and not comprehensive enough! Perhaps, if could recalled my memory a year ago when I have to decide which University in the UK in regards to continue my master degree, I was using system 2 but not in very details manner. I was trying to decide by comparing more than 4 universities using ranking that at the time I realize there are so many difference approaches and parameters use to evaluate those universities. Thus, I believe this was the bias comes from. Nevertheless, by having more than 3-4 website I believe I could minimize this variation.

On top of that, I quite happy following my decision to choose this University since I can learn something different from others, here I learn who to learn. It’s something that I’m looking for, something that can enhance my knowledge and change the way I’m thinking. Hopefully I can use this experience at the time I back to my homeland. 

March 17, 2011

Bias Bias and Bias

One thing for sure after learning throughout last week in RDM module is, we can’t not avoid bias. It’s inevitable in every decision-making, however what we can do is to minimize it by having supportive decision making tools in order to have robustness decisions. During the mini project, our team tries to solve the problem by employing more than two decision-making tools in order to minimize this bias. Yet, it’s not quite an easy job to do since every single member has their own point of view and preferences. Thus, most of the time we were debating on our different point of view.

It also reminds me when I worked as a strategic buyer in purchasing department. In my daily routine I always dealt with so many bias since when I procure goods or services my users sometimes has their own preference on particular products they want to purchase. Thus, it becomes more and more complicate for me since one side I want to satisfy my user by delivering requirements they wanted at on time manner, nevertheless in many cases their preferences are not make sense in term of commercial aspect point of view so I need to reject their request.

I realize, bias is everywhere and mostly related to people opinion and preference when deciding something from small event to most important thing. Moreover, by employing more than two decision making techniques it will reduce the variation cause and confirm whether our decision is inline from one tool to another.

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