April 29, 2011

Danger of Bias

Talking about bias in RDM PMA reminds me that during IMV our team traps in several biases that affect our decision-making as the multiplier effect. It starts with representative bias when we try to gather additional data to decide marketing tools by interviewing one or two experts. Then we take it for granted their opinion, which lead our team trap in conformation bias when having discussion in other decision methodology. We were trying to avoid any options that against our preference, which there is no second opinion to confirm our first decision. I think, second opinion is very important to avoid or at least minimize bias that affect our decision making process.

To give you illustration, back in my home country it becomes very common when people went to doctor to get diagnose about their current condition to have second opinion from another doctor just to ensure that she/he got correct diagnose. Even some people looking for third opinion! One side it’s good because you get robust decision, yet it proves that your expert is not reliable and of course wasting some resources such as; time and money!

- 2 comments by 1 or more people Not publicly viewable

  1. I’m not sure that we fell into the confirmation trap with the experts. We spoke to two experts from different companies, and we started by asking questions in ways that didn’t assume any of our previous knowledge. It was only later in the conversation when probing at certain areas that we had to mention specific marketing options to find whether they used them. For example, both mentioned boat shows without any prompting, which I think makes that a robust choice.

    However, I do agree that perhaps we were trying to ‘confirm’ during our discussion with other methodologies. I think we thought that by having opinion informed by expert knowledge was better, and it was, but we didn’t look to go further and see if this could have been dis-confirmed by other methodologies we had used.

    30 Apr 2011, 10:28

  2. hi yanik, i’m not talking about the confirmation trap with the expert. what i’m trying to say is after we had information from expert, it affects our decision in other methodologies that we tend to confirm that particular result. I think if we split the team and focus on each methodology without knowing the result, it will minimize the bias when we have discussion.

    02 May 2011, 06:30

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