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January 13, 2007

Plaid Cymru and the Tories should make friends

Blamerbell, an increasingly influential Welsh blogger, suggested this week that the chances of Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives joining forces after the May Welsh Assembly elections was as likely as Lembit Opik becoming a Benedictine monk.

Mathematically it might do them a favour though. Dr Richard Wyn Jones and Dr Roger Scully of the Institute of Welsh Politics have done the 'electoral math'1 and say that the election in May this year is likely to result in:

Party Projected seats
Labour
25
Plaid Cymru
13
Conservatives 
13
Lib Dems
7
Independent
2

There's lots of possibilities. Labour and Plaid Cymru might get together. Labour and the Lib Dems might amble along. But if the Tories want to have any say, joining with the Lib Dems - while politically practical - would be mathematically daft. They'd be trounced. Plaid's their only partner if they want to lead. And as Blamerbell said, it's not likely.

If the figures are accurate, it looks like a Labour/Plaid coalition is inevitable. And that means the next term's going to be even more explosive than this one.

1. A West Wingism that I love.


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