July 27, 2006

Over–optimism from the Israelis?

From page 2–3 of today's Guardian:

[according to Israel] more than 200 Hizbullah fighters [have] been killed since the conflict began.

and Israel's northern command chief said:

in a number of weeks we will be able to declare a victory

this in spite of the statistic (on p3):

Hezbullah (sic) has 6,000 elite fighters and 20,000 trained fighters.

Based on those statistics, at the current rate it will take Israel precisely 130 weeks to come half-way to total victory. In the same amount of time they would kill 50,700 Lebanese citizens.

They seem to have fallen into the trap of the United States' War on Terror in believing that complete victory is even possible when dealing with a terrorist organisation.

=====

I should add that my statistics are based on the Israelis' estimates. The independent figure is 31 confirmed Hizbullah deaths. Meaning it would take over 1700 weeks to kill all of the Hizbullah fighters…


- One comment Not publicly viewable

  1. Hezbollah is massive and exists in other countries besides Lebanon. The Israeli aim is to remove militia from South Lebanon and create a buffer zone patrolled by the UN. But only once militia have been weeded out.

    27 Jul 2006, 18:42


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