Ok here goes i think i understand it now tho have spent all night arguing with certain housemates who shall remain nameless- Kyle about the correct answer!!! I found the problem in a great book – "The Curious Incident of The Dog in the Night time" but the original question is "The Monty Hall Problem" and the answer published in a magazine called the Parade by Marilyn vos Savant…..
Your on a gameshow and are about to win a flash sports car!!! You are shown 3 doors and asked to pick one, behind one door there is the car behind each of the other 2 is a goat. So you pick a door and the gameshow host ten open one of the other 2 doors to reveal a goat. They then ask you if you wat to change your mind. What do you do…..?
The sensible thing is to change as this would increase your chances of winning the car to 2/3 where if you don't change it is only 1/3. Your mind is telling you to stick right? As surly there's now a fifty fifty chance of being right?!?
Let me show you how..
so you see if you change 2 times out of three you get the car!!!! Strange but true!! I know I havent explained this very well but am still coming to terms with it myself!!! Hope you can see it makes sense :)