March 19, 2011

Simulation Bias

Simulations are widely used in companies and factories. it is argued that simulation is not a decision tool but it is a tool that can work out 'what if' analysis and then people have to decide among options. if we look deeply inside the simulation process, we can see that the system does many decisions and assumption before it gives the final options that we have to choose among. there many 'what ifs' going along a route before it going to a final result that we can see.

An example of that was the simulation that we have done in the leadership module. we had to make decisions and give some numbers and the system/software would estimate the profit. the software would not be able to make such decisions without being programmed with many human assumption that covers many situations. these assumptions are holding the programmers' bias.

In my opinion, simulation is an automated scenario analysis to a big extent. it is very useful and can predict future results and situations, but its accuracy is related to the bias used by programmers.

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