All 5 entries tagged Rdm

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April 17, 2012

Our immature decisions

Looking at the academic sources to find the advantages and the situations where decision tools were used begs to think that we as students did quite a job in taking our decision making tools.

i soo much found an article which supported the coalition of Decision Tree and AHP, this was our decision regarding the selection of the location for wave riders production plant. Could this be that our mental awareness has increased during the past few months and that we have begun to analyze situations in a better and more analytical manner?

March 07, 2012

the anchoring heuristic!

so we came to know about the different type of baisses also familiarized ourselves with the heuristics.

Although i suppose like us all other group members have tried to avoid the availability heuristic by making use of most difficult tools and not relying on the easiest ones (Decision tree, AHP, SMART).

But then again i would mention that un-intentionally we in our group were using the anchoring heuristic.
recall that Jeff made us reach an initial conclusion as to what we will be our decision and though this decision was'nt based on detailed analysis, we all tried our best to make use of all the analytical skills we had and reached a conclusion; apart from one group who proclaimed that they have not reached a conclusion.

according to this heuristic, i firmly believe they will not be affected by it but all us others will be to some certaine extent.

Let's see who reaches to their initial conclusion after the detailed analysis and who does not!

March 05, 2012

Are we to reach the same conclusion???

my regards to fotini.

She came with this random idea that if we all are making a robust decision, we all are applying the System-2 of our cognitive functioning. And thus we should all be reaching the same conclusion!!!

This seems to be true and should hold true since we all are expected to exhaust all available options, make use of all tools and reduce bias as much as we can BUT, our project and decision making has a loophole which will not make us reach the same conclusion/decision even if we think in the most process based conscious manner.

This is a point which i have on a few occasions mentioned in our team, that we have to remember the assumptions that we are using and also make sure that the assumptions are justifiable, that they seem logical enough to be considered reasonable. Since the beginning of the group study i have been trying to document all of our workings and proceedings; this will be a great help to our group memory and also assist us all in our PMA.

February 28, 2012

Biasses arising due to time constraints

The discussion for today included an overview of numerous biasses which arise due to certain reasons, at times attributed to individuals and at times during groups as well.
Decision making processes are affected and thus the focus of 'Robust' decision making is geared towards looking for solutions which aren't only good decisions but also have a certain significance and certainty of success in their outcome.

Although we have identified the different types of biasses and also understood that we are to reduce them as much as possible i am struck by an issue which requires clarification.

Time constraints bring about biasses in group members, who after a certain point in time will eventually want to reach a decision, which moves the everyone or certain members of the group away from the objectivity of their goals.

How do we restrict or reduce bias which arises from time constraints...

February 27, 2012

There is no Triangle

probably the only lecture i have attended in my academic life so far which has proved my wrong at soo many instances that i came to judge my own judgement.

At a point Jeff remarked that we can't always rely on our visual system, we see things which aren't there and this is such that our cognitive functioning system -1 (Intuitive system) prefers to see things and in other cases miss things which are there. . .

Another point which needs to made is that RDM as a module will focus on moving our decision making from system -1 to system -2, so that we apply more reasoning, logic and exert effort in trying to judge certain things infront of us.

It is true, that we have preconceived notions about several things in life, we make judgements out of little details which might not be, and in most cases are not, conclusive. Yet, our mind tends to look for the easy way out at times and this affects our judgement and the eventual result, thanks to Jeff for showing us how poor our visual and cognitive functioning system actually is we have all been made aware that our mind like everything else needs to be trained to see, extract and analyze information in the correct manner.

One of the many things which were a basis for further learning today includes, making one person a devil's advocate within a group so the conclusions of the group can be challenged thus creating a proof checking within the group for the purpose of re-examining the results obtained by the team. I personally have played this part by myself without letting the team members know at times and it helps a lot in gaining the required justifications and explanations which could and have been used in past group presentations.

I believe, there can be many things learned from a simply exercise that we all carried out today and that more learning is just around the corner. But then again, there is no corner, it's right infront of us :)

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