All 4 entries tagged Rdm

Decision in Time

After some more dose of decision-making reflection, and critique on our approach of decision making, it made me wonder, did we consider the timing aspect of the decision?

I came across some literature regarding it, which says the importance of timing. A very good decision at one time maybe absolutely insane at another.

This made me browse through the decision making tools and techniques a bit more. We tried using quite a number of tools in our approach, but in none of them there was the aspect of timing considered. Is it that the ranking in the tools, is dependent on the time or situation, and therefore it can be considered to be accounted for within the approach. Isnt it a part of robustness, that the decision be tested through variation in time. Should there not be a technique or a test for robustness in terms of timing? Maybe there is something, that I'm not aware of, or havn't realized..

If anyone knows about something of this sort, could you please clarify..

Good Luck!

: 28 Mar 2011 22:54 |  Tags: Decisions Rdm |  Comments (2) |  Close comments |  Report a problem

A view from my window..

Was going through the RDM website when I came across the concept of 'Cognitive Inertia'. This has been very well illustrated with the help of an example, that never is the case when the view from two different windows is exactly the same.

This implies, that always, there is some area that is common to all, which we call the 'obvious'. While, there is some which is visible only to a few, but this doesnt make it false!!

This beautiful comparison, clarifies some things in mind, and raises some doubts. There can be a situation, especially, in case of risky decisions that organisations have to make, when there is a perspective which is only viewed by one (or maybe a few). On the other hand, the consensus of the group is very different. Now, the person is nearly certain that this is not going to work, but the group wont believe in him. This can be dangerous! Rather I've been in a situation like this, where i was certain that this would fail, but had no other option but to go by the consensus.

How should a situation like this be handled? Suggest guys..

: 20 Mar 2011 20:25 |  Tags: Rdm |  Comments (0) |  Close comments |  Report a problem

Were we Robust?

One thing that I noted in this module during the in-module work is that there is nothing called a successful decision. What we can aim at is only a ‘robust decision’ which can cover most uncertainties and has the maximum probability of success. 

From our experience as a team, I can suggest that we have experienced a failure of systems’ thinking. It may sound too critical, but all that I mean is that any decision cannot be the most appropriate one, practical and especially robust, if it is not a result of an integrated approach of all areas of work.

We have been introduced to more scientific means of decision making. But, we all agree that in these too, a human aspect is involved in the form of choosing the criteria ratings and probabilities etc. This is not rocket science with its set of formulae and principles. Hence, for the best use of these tools and techniques, an understanding of the gaps created by one and filled by another must be clearly understood.

What we as a team tried to do is adopt maximum number of tools and techniques, but if we try to compare this scenario with actual working environment, would we actually do this? Would we try to use anything and everything or would we employ the bare minimum number of tools and techniques and make sure they are effectively used? So, from my understanding, what we lacked was an understanding of how a problem like would be tackled in the ‘real’ world.

So, I have in mind some clarity what all we did wrong, but I still have to reflect on the ways in which, I can avoid that from happening..

: 19 Mar 2011 12:22 |  Tags: Rdm |  Comments (1) |  Close comments |  Report a problem

Think Critical!

Having tried to use all the tools and techniques, tryin to figure, what were the assumptions we made. Having a list of some assumptions, that were predecided, now in the process of critical thinking, I notice, there were certian things which we assumed and we did'nt even realize we did! This is again a form of bias.

As I see from others' blogs, everyone is struggling with bias! How to minimize it!? The same is with us. Trying to compare it to real world scenario, I think for a large scale, it'd be all the more difficult! For nearly all means of decision making that i can think of there is a 'but, what if' that occurs. 

For example, Benchmarking. There is a major chance of confirmation bias and availability heuristic!

: 15 Mar 2011 23:56 |  Tags: Rdm |  Comments (1) |  Close comments |  Report a problem