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March 11, 2013

Measuring decision quality

Measuring the decision quality is an important part of decision knowledge. The quality is not always measured by the decision outcomes as the amount of factors are way complicated in real life business to be considered totally. Measurement cannot depend on qualitative data as interpretation can vary significantly.

The measurement of decision quality allows tthe decision makers to lean assesing decision for more robust decisions. It is also a learning curve which allows the decision maker to improve with experience when usin the appropriate theory and tools.

I can assess the quality of decisions i have to make by examining wide range of alternatives, understand all the objectives and decision requirements, understand associated positives and negatives and assess the possibility of decision implementation. This will allow me to to make an informed decision by measuring its quality before agreeing to it as the most robust decision can be out of the decision list.

RDM presentation

In our presentation we considered production location using 2 analysis tools; decision tree and AHP. We also made the most effective media channels for advertisements. In location selection my judgement urged me to select Exmouth due to higher production rate. However, The decision tree demonstrated that in year 1 Exmouth is probably more profitable and in year 2 Lymington is more profitable and has no risk associated. This taught me that judgement is poor without support. Moreover, choosing a robust decision is more effective as plans can go forward without worrying about success rate and fluctuation.

In my career, when trying to think of a solution as an engineer cutting edge solutions can be rewarding but decision analysis might differ the opinion which can allow me to make a more robust and stable decision.

Decision Verification

Robust decision making is not is not dependent on intuition or judgement. However, it is dependent on decision analysis tool. I learned that decision making either should be validated using organisation data and performance on a certain aspect or using another analysis tool for verification if both outcomes are in agreement. If not it would be useful to use the support of a third tool for determination. Nevertheless, chosen tools should be sufficient to cover most of decision aspects to avoid choosing a tool to confirm previous outcomes.

This is important to allow decision maker to assess the robustness and validity of a decision. such an action can lead to reducing decision errors and increasing the decision maker confidence.

In my future career i have to ensure that consulting more than a single analysis tool is useful. This will allow me to avoid falling in the trap of my bias by the first tool and pay my attention to further complexity of decision dimensions. I believe that it is also a useful tool to determine a career line for a change after completing my course.

March 07, 2013

AHP tool

AHP tool works on comparing the decision attributes and ranking them accordingly. The benefit of AHP is in giving an insight of the decision hierarchy to efficiently evaluate the criteria and sub criteria. Moreover, it helps in aiding qualitative decisions where specific values are not available and uncertainty is high. Nevertheless, this provides a big window for personal judgement and decision bias. This, however, can be overcome by prioritising the firm needs and experience with utilising the tool.

it is important to understand the advantages and disadvantages of decision analysis tools for effective use. Moreover, it is also important to be aware of where biases fit in decision tools to be able to minimise it. being aware of judgement is helpful to know how the reliability of decision is affected.

The AHP is very useful in making decisions. in my line of work, i can expect my self to use AHP for prioritizing maintenance task according to importance especially when quantitative data is not available. it also can be used making decisions on how distribute the workforce according to the workload requirements.

Tool Selection

decision tools are numerous. When planning to make a reliable decision it is always useful to use a tool. However, selecting the right tool can be more complicated than using the tool it self. The literature describes that tool selection is dictated by decision requirement such as, amount of data available, time and resources, complexity and people involved. the most logical approach would be to assess all the tools for compatibility, however, this might require extensive time resources and experience. a more convenient approach is to understand from literature what tools are used for the decision requirement and assess the benefit of a particular tool to reach to convenient decision.

The importance of this knowledge is in simplifying the tool selection process. However, this improves by experience in decision analysis and familiarity with tools benefits.

in our location decision we assessed the decision requirement and compared it to decision tree advantages which showed a very positive result as a practise of the proposed selection approach. At work, when required to make a decision i can assess the available data, resources and the associated uncertainty to aid me in tools selection using common tools advantages.

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Most recent comments

  • Good point, you dont have to consider it while using the decision tree as the available data is limi… by Ahmed Alali on this entry
  • Good point Bu Salim. However, i failed to mention that a decision objective is linked to the busines… by Ahmed Alali on this entry
  • I do agree with you Ahmed that certain modification enhance GA performance, however, even if someone… by Waddah Alharthi on this entry
  • as u said, the time scaling and sentivity need to be taken into account… i agree but do u think in… by Tzu-i Yang on this entry
  • i agree with u … choosing tools is not easy… we might fall into trap info….it was whyi decisio… by Tzu-i Yang on this entry

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