All entries for March 2013
March 11, 2013
In our presentation we considered production location using 2 analysis tools; decision tree and AHP. We also made the most effective media channels for advertisements. In location selection my judgement urged me to select Exmouth due to higher production rate. However, The decision tree demonstrated that in year 1 Exmouth is probably more profitable and in year 2 Lymington is more profitable and has no risk associated. This taught me that judgement is poor without support. Moreover, choosing a robust decision is more effective as plans can go forward without worrying about success rate and fluctuation.
In my career, when trying to think of a solution as an engineer cutting edge solutions can be rewarding but decision analysis might differ the opinion which can allow me to make a more robust and stable decision.
Robust decision making is not is not dependent on intuition or judgement. However, it is dependent on decision analysis tool. I learned that decision making either should be validated using organisation data and performance on a certain aspect or using another analysis tool for verification if both outcomes are in agreement. If not it would be useful to use the support of a third tool for determination. Nevertheless, chosen tools should be sufficient to cover most of decision aspects to avoid choosing a tool to confirm previous outcomes.
This is important to allow decision maker to assess the robustness and validity of a decision. such an action can lead to reducing decision errors and increasing the decision maker confidence.
In my future career i have to ensure that consulting more than a single analysis tool is useful. This will allow me to avoid falling in the trap of my bias by the first tool and pay my attention to further complexity of decision dimensions. I believe that it is also a useful tool to determine a career line for a change after completing my course.
March 07, 2013
AHP tool works on comparing the decision attributes and ranking them accordingly. The benefit of AHP is in giving an insight of the decision hierarchy to efficiently evaluate the criteria and sub criteria. Moreover, it helps in aiding qualitative decisions where specific values are not available and uncertainty is high. Nevertheless, this provides a big window for personal judgement and decision bias. This, however, can be overcome by prioritising the firm needs and experience with utilising the tool.
it is important to understand the advantages and disadvantages of decision analysis tools for effective use. Moreover, it is also important to be aware of where biases fit in decision tools to be able to minimise it. being aware of judgement is helpful to know how the reliability of decision is affected.
The AHP is very useful in making decisions. in my line of work, i can expect my self to use AHP for prioritizing maintenance task according to importance especially when quantitative data is not available. it also can be used making decisions on how distribute the workforce according to the workload requirements.
decision tools are numerous. When planning to make a reliable decision it is always useful to use a tool. However, selecting the right tool can be more complicated than using the tool it self. The literature describes that tool selection is dictated by decision requirement such as, amount of data available, time and resources, complexity and people involved. the most logical approach would be to assess all the tools for compatibility, however, this might require extensive time resources and experience. a more convenient approach is to understand from literature what tools are used for the decision requirement and assess the benefit of a particular tool to reach to convenient decision.
The importance of this knowledge is in simplifying the tool selection process. However, this improves by experience in decision analysis and familiarity with tools benefits.
in our location decision we assessed the decision requirement and compared it to decision tree advantages which showed a very positive result as a practise of the proposed selection approach. At work, when required to make a decision i can assess the available data, resources and the associated uncertainty to aid me in tools selection using common tools advantages.
March 05, 2013
I learned that decision tree supports decision making in two aspects; first it provides a graphical representation of the situation with all possible routes and provides the highest probability value as the optimal decision.
This tool is a very important decision tool in in its benefits. it also supports decision making associated with risk and uncertainty. The consideration of probability and value gives an insight to decision making.
The use of decision tree can be used for investment decisions. If two possible engineering modifications are recommended they can be compared for cost, return on investment and reliability using decision tree.