All 12 entries tagged Rdm
May 03, 2011
I'd like to end this PMA with a thought that tools are never bias, bias are the decison makers. We tend to criticise and call these tools subjective when the real problem is within the decision maker himself. Rather than trying to create more and more effective tools of decision making and thinking that the best decision making tool will produce the best result, it is actually the decision maker who should try to imporove himself. He must be free of all bias, mental models, heurisitics, etc. It is his job to not fall in this trap and be objective at all times.
While doing the presentation work, I am sure many of us fell in this trap. There were so many times when our mental models and pre conceived notion took a stand against all objectivity. Sometimes we believe in things so strongly that our minds get closed and we are no longer rational beings. I personally, am so convinced with my own thinking that I cannot accept a contradictory notion.
Sometimes mental models are also a form of arrogance or ego as we are so sure about our pre conceive notions. I'd like to test if in general egoistic and arrogant people create more mental models than the others or are more driven by heurisitcs in comparison to others. This may be true because egoistic and arrogant people don't easily open up to new ideas. This makes me also wonder if arrogant and egoistic people aare ctually bad decision makers? Not generalising, but would love to test this theorem..
Anyways... Not just in in decision making but to be successful in any front, we have to do things wisely. We can't become wise in one days time... its again a cycle of continuous improvement...
While investigating about heuristics, i came across several articles that speak of heurisitcs in a positive manner. I was under the imporession that heurisitc are an inferior way of making decisions, its is a completely irrational technique that can never produce optimal solutions. Its more like an easy escape to the problem or shutting your eyes towards a problem. However, in general heuristics produce correct results, ofcourse they can neveral guarantee an optimal solution.
The authors that speak in favor of heurisitcs descirbe it as an extremely rational way of makind decisions. They suggests that we as human beings tend to think logically and our judgement is a perfectly logical methods. They further suggest that these are straightforward, simple and time saving techniques. Also, in the case of uncertainity and availability of objective data heuristics can play an important role.
All these points leave me confused. I cannot make up my minds as to whether an individual should be drive his judgement based on heuristics or not!?!
May 02, 2011
I don't like the fact that i have a mental model for everything. There are these pre existing thoughts that tend to guide my decisions and me in general. Its like im a person who is always driven by intutions and pre conceived ideas rather than facts.
For example, when I meet someone who I've heard about from people. I form my judgement about that person based on what I know of him/her from other people rather than actually forming an unbiased judgement on him/her. Ofcourse, you shouln't judge people, but its always happening consciously or unconsciously. We all are always being judgemental and I know for a fact that its not only me but many people tend to judge other based on their own mental models.
And the worst part is that this happens subconsciously. And sometimes you feel so helpless especially because so many times you've gone wrong. I think of people in a particular manner and instantly judge them, in a good or bad and over time I'm prooved wrong. They turn out to be completely different people. And then you sit and regret about how wrong you have been all this while, simply cause you refused to be objectiveand were driven by a mental model.
Somtimes you its good to bea little clueless about things rather tha being a Miss. Know-it-all
I think one of the aspects that I like about decision trees are the fact that they are flexible in nature. Decision tees can always be modifies from their orginial structure as and when we get more information and understanding of the problem and as the future scenarios unfold. To me, decision trees are also simple to use. Sometimes, problems can be too wordy and this is when decision tree helps us break the problem down into smaller prices and give it a structure. Moreover, they bring to light many of the hidden elements of a problem that we take for granted or will not take into consideration otherwise.
Also, the pictorial view of a the decision trees make a problem look more appealing than otheriwse. I think decision trees really help in unravelling problems, I see them like simple problem solving code breakers for a very complex problem. More scenarios you unravel, more you are preapared for the future. All you have to do in future as the scenarios unfold is to go back to the decision tree and measure the result (ofcourse, provided you previously taken the scenario into consideration).
While studying AHP, I came across conflicting idea about the nature of this particular decision tool.
Whereas some authors suggest that it is a combination of subjectivity and rationality, others suggest that is is entirely based on scientific judgement.
In my view even though the approach may be scientifc in nature, it is largely affected by the subjectivity of the decision maker. Most importantly, the factors that a decision maker chooses for the model can largely determine the validity of the results. However, that suggests that subjectivity is never the problem of the tool itself but the decision maker. This makes me think that the decision maker himself has a huge role to play. No matter which decision tool you pick, in the absence of an effective and objective decision maker, the tool by itself will be dysfunctional.
May 01, 2011
Have you ever thought about the fact that no two people will tend to make the same decision or act in a similar manner even if they are given exactly the same information. Interesting, right?
We all are different and that's what makes everything so interesting. No matter how much we talk about being unbiased and robust, we all tend to add a certain element of our own nature and characterisitcs to the decisions we make. We can never be fully unbiased. We are not GOD. Ever since we are born, we are born with a bias. Everything that we have watched, observed and understood from the time we are born, slowly and powerfully becomes a part of us and moulds us into who we are today. Infact biasness is a very crucial part of our individuality. We are biased towards different colors, people, clothes, food, etc. This is what we are and this is what makes us different from the others. Imagine a world where no one is biased. Wouldn't it be so boring? Everyone would be okay with everything, what a perfect world? We all talk about being perfect but a world that is too perfect can be deathly scary actually.
Our biasness greatly influence our lives and the decisions we make. Bias is what makes us or destroys us. We are actually a product of our own bias. And there is nothing wrong with that. Make your mistakes and learn from them. Faliure actually brings us even closer to our success.
Since no one can be totally unbiased, can we actually try and be biased towards the right decision. Deep, right? But its possible I think. Easy and straightforward..Be well informed, always and your biasness will lead you to the right decision automaitically. Simple. Infact, eat right, be in good company, make right friends, watch informative things, read interesting things and then you'll be an intelligent person who'll be able to make the right decisions. All you would need to do is go a step further, research and gather information!! So in conclusion, be biased but towards the right decision ;)
Today, while studying about biases that arise from heuristics and the mental models we have, I recollected an incident from the rdm study week. I still remember working on the presentation, I was trying to use Paired Comparison to allocate the appropriate marketing mix for the adveritising campaign. When I was trying to do the Paired Comparion, I realised that I was allocating numbers from the top of my head, accroding to my own subjectivity and through whatever little knew about different advertising campaigns. In the first attempt, this decision tool was completely based on my subjectivity on the given choices. However, in the group meeting we realised that if we use the decision tool this way, it will be extremely unreliable and biased. As a result, on the suggestion of one of our team members we decided to extensively research on the subject. We the analysed, researched different advertising mix on the internet, journals, etc. and gathered information by even personally calling associate personnel. We then found gathering information through different sources a very helpful step in removing bias and making robust decisions. The final decision that we made was finally a roubust decision after all the hardwork! I then realised that we make so many decisions in our day to day life based on our prior knowledge or no knowledge. Subjectivity will always come one on the way of making a roubst decision. We should always try to remove this big obstacle and introduce objectivity in our deciison. For this, It is very very important to gather as much information as we can to make a reliable and robust decision.
April 26, 2011
I think making the right portfolio is one of the hardest things an organisation has to face. Whether to divest or invest is the big querstion. There is always an element of risk involved. You maybe a huge risk taker but its the entire organsiation that you have to take in mind. Risky decisions may often given high returns, but risky decisions are not always the best decisions. Even though we innovate and come up with all the new things, it can be quite hard to make customers accept them. Launching a product is as important as all the decisions relating to its production. Rdm presentation was just a small and very straightforward glimpse of the real world. Considering the market externalities and dynamism it is so difficult to decide on the most appropriate and suitable product mix and then also how to successfully launch it.
What I find is that decision making tools can be extremely helpful right from the conception stage itself. Currently, when im looking into portfolio planning, the BCG matrix, I find that such tools can proove very helpful in getting the overall view of the organsiation. It plays a cruicial role in evaluating the current perfomance of each the different products, their contribtuion towards the total growth of the company. The best part is that it just doesn't analyse the perfomance of the product but it also suggests what we can do with that product in the future based on their contribution. By classifying each product into a star, question mark, cash cow or dog we can decide to hold, build, harves or divest in it. I'm finding it extremely interesting to learn about such tools. More than the tools theorietical implication, it is their practical implication that plays a stronger role. The best part about the tools is that apart from their practical implication, many of these tools are straightforward and easy to understand. They require minimum effort and reflect the best results. The business analysis becomes so much more simpler by employing these...
April 25, 2011
Its fun doing the RDM pma. Its pretty straightfoward and thats what I appreciate. While doing the PMA I've come across so many different aspects of these decision making tools that I have previously ignored. I guess thats why PMAs are there and are the next step. What Im liking most about the PMA is to actually sit and now analyse our own decisions we had taken as a group. This is also helping us in actally identifying certain aspects of decisions where we went wrong or have ignored or some aspects that we should have considered. Previously, during the in module time due to the lack of time we couldn't profoundly look into our decision methodology and evaluate them. Certain decisions were also made in haste. Moreover, tasks of the presentation were divided between groups, although there was exchange of information and we all had basic ideaof each of the decision making tools we had used, I managed to gain expertise only in the tools that I had chosen to work. As a result the extensive knowledge of theother tools. Fort me, the PMA is very prooving very helpful in overcoming this problem.
Oreviously, I was extremely happy when I got to know that PMA is just for 2000 words. But unfortunately there is so much to write that I can easily write much beyond 2000 words in these. This makes me wonder that a PMA should actually be long enough else its very very hard to pick up the most relevant and meaningful information and fit it in within the word limit. Its quite challenging to write a good PMA within the given word limit.
March 18, 2011
RDM was different. The module gave MBE the opportunity to work together as a whole rather than as MBE- A or B. It was an opportunity to interact and work with MBE students that we had hadn't previously worked with. I am in MBE-B and I knew my little seminar class of 24 students so well. I was extremely comfortable working with any of these 24 students as I was quite familiar with their working styles. But RDM required us to break out of this tiny shell that we had created for ourselves over the last few months. I must say it was quite exciting yet challenging.
I was looking forward to working with new people but at the same time I was quite skeptical as well. Especially since my group had majority of the pople I hadn't previously worked with I wasn't too much at ease at first. I wasn't too familiar with the nature of the people I was going to work with and it required me to break out of my comfort zone. However, too my great astonishment working within this team was quite a learning experience. I had a fantastic team and I was comfortable within few minutes of the start of our first meeting itself. Ofcourse we had our 'Eureka' moments and some some rought times as well but regardless it all eneded up in something constructive. I had the opprotunity to work with some very smart, , responsible and efficient team members. There was so much I learning invovled. Their dedication and passion towards the goal was admirable.
I look back at the transition that has happened over the days during the RDM module. From being resistant to change to the one now embracing change and ofcourse not to forget the ongoing learning process that has been taking place simultaneously. But then again I wonder have I really embraced the change or has the change integrated itself with time. Am I back in the comfort zone? Will I experience the same emotions and go through the same process if I am given a new set of people to work with? Because change is inevitable. Anyhow, I must praise Jeff for desinging the module in a mannder that gave way to new opportunities and new learnign experiences.