All entries for Tuesday 03 May 2011

May 03, 2011

RDM– Tools are never bias, bias are the decision makers

I'd like to end this PMA with a thought that tools are never bias, bias are the decison makers. We tend to criticise and call these tools subjective when the real problem is within the decision maker himself. Rather than trying to create more and more effective tools of decision making and thinking that the best decision making tool will produce the best result, it is actually the decision maker who should try to imporove himself. He must be free of all bias, mental models, heurisitics, etc. It is his job to not fall in this trap and be objective at all times.

While doing the presentation work, I am sure many of us fell in this trap. There were so many times when our mental models and pre conceived notion took a stand against all objectivity. Sometimes we believe in things so strongly that our minds get closed and we are no longer rational beings. I personally, am so convinced with my own thinking that I cannot accept a contradictory notion. 

Sometimes mental models are also a form of arrogance or ego as we are so sure about our pre conceive notions. I'd like to test if in general egoistic and arrogant people create more mental models  than the others or are more driven by heurisitcs in comparison to others. This may be true because egoistic and arrogant people don't easily open up to new ideas. This makes me also wonder if arrogant and egoistic people aare ctually bad decision makers? Not generalising, but would love to test this theorem..

Anyways... Not just in in decision making but to be successful in any front, we have to do things wisely. We can't become wise in one days time... its again a cycle of continuous improvement...

RDM– Heuristic

While investigating about heuristics, i came across several articles that speak of heurisitcs in a positive manner. I was under the imporession that heurisitc are an inferior way of making decisions, its is a completely irrational technique that can never produce optimal solutions. Its more like an easy escape to the problem or shutting your eyes towards a problem. However, in general heuristics produce correct results, ofcourse they can neveral guarantee an optimal solution.

The authors that speak in favor of heurisitcs descirbe it as an extremely rational way of makind decisions. They suggests that we as human beings tend to think logically and our judgement is a perfectly logical methods. They further suggest that these are straightforward, simple and time saving techniques. Also, in the case of uncertainity and availability of objective data heuristics can play an important role.

All these points leave me confused. I cannot make up my minds as to whether an individual should be drive his judgement based on heuristics or not!?!

May 2011

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