All entries for Monday 02 May 2011
May 02, 2011
I don't like the fact that i have a mental model for everything. There are these pre existing thoughts that tend to guide my decisions and me in general. Its like im a person who is always driven by intutions and pre conceived ideas rather than facts.
For example, when I meet someone who I've heard about from people. I form my judgement about that person based on what I know of him/her from other people rather than actually forming an unbiased judgement on him/her. Ofcourse, you shouln't judge people, but its always happening consciously or unconsciously. We all are always being judgemental and I know for a fact that its not only me but many people tend to judge other based on their own mental models.
And the worst part is that this happens subconsciously. And sometimes you feel so helpless especially because so many times you've gone wrong. I think of people in a particular manner and instantly judge them, in a good or bad and over time I'm prooved wrong. They turn out to be completely different people. And then you sit and regret about how wrong you have been all this while, simply cause you refused to be objectiveand were driven by a mental model.
Somtimes you its good to bea little clueless about things rather tha being a Miss. Know-it-all
I think one of the aspects that I like about decision trees are the fact that they are flexible in nature. Decision tees can always be modifies from their orginial structure as and when we get more information and understanding of the problem and as the future scenarios unfold. To me, decision trees are also simple to use. Sometimes, problems can be too wordy and this is when decision tree helps us break the problem down into smaller prices and give it a structure. Moreover, they bring to light many of the hidden elements of a problem that we take for granted or will not take into consideration otherwise.
Also, the pictorial view of a the decision trees make a problem look more appealing than otheriwse. I think decision trees really help in unravelling problems, I see them like simple problem solving code breakers for a very complex problem. More scenarios you unravel, more you are preapared for the future. All you have to do in future as the scenarios unfold is to go back to the decision tree and measure the result (ofcourse, provided you previously taken the scenario into consideration).
While studying AHP, I came across conflicting idea about the nature of this particular decision tool.
Whereas some authors suggest that it is a combination of subjectivity and rationality, others suggest that is is entirely based on scientific judgement.
In my view even though the approach may be scientifc in nature, it is largely affected by the subjectivity of the decision maker. Most importantly, the factors that a decision maker chooses for the model can largely determine the validity of the results. However, that suggests that subjectivity is never the problem of the tool itself but the decision maker. This makes me think that the decision maker himself has a huge role to play. No matter which decision tool you pick, in the absence of an effective and objective decision maker, the tool by itself will be dysfunctional.