All entries for Sunday 22 April 2012

April 22, 2012

Outcomes

So much of emphasis is given on taking the robust decisions but it is the outcome which every person runs after . We as a student are more concerned about our marks rather than analysing our decisions taken during the course of work . If the outcome is good , than a decision taken is considered robust but that might not be the case everytime , we cannot judge the decision just by its outcome. We might have taken the right decision even when the outcome is not good .It can be that a decision taken might not give the best outcome that time , it might give later on , so saying that decision was not robust is not right. These decisions are so subjective that the outcomes really should not be the ultimate answer.


Decisions under uncertainity

As i went through various articles , many of them spoke about making decisons under uncertainity . IT says that decisions get tougher when the situations are uncertain and not predictable. But , it jus brings a qestion to my mind-when is a situation certain. When can we predict a situation that no matter what it wil give us exactly what we expect.

For Example - In a cricket match we choose the right player ,doing all kind of permutations and combinations , depending on their skills . The selectors thinks that they have taken a robust decision of selecting the players but still the team looses , so how can we say that we are at any time certain about our decisions , no matter how robust the decision is .

The degree of uncertainity might vary but all every problem is uncertain and decisions cannot be completely guarenteed that it is certain.


Decisions made out of Intuition

Going back to the day , when i first thought that I am ready to do my masters, I had so many things running in my mind :

1. Which subject should I do my master in?

2. Will I be compatible enough to do that particular course ?

3. Which university should I apply ?

and many more...

But that time I did not have these decision tools to help me , make this decision . When I look back ,i think to my self will a decision tree give me a better decision or complicate my choices .Will it actually tell the rate of my success and failure , would that matter that time. Sometimes intuition , time and previous knowledge does help in making the right decision and does not lead to biasness . Because now when i look at my self I feel I had made the right and robust decision to come to this university .


The more complex a tool , the better

Decision tools make the work of taking decision much easier and makes them look at various aspects which they might have missed if they would not have chsen to use the decisio tool. But there lies a great problem with choosing the right kind of decision tool depending on the problem . All the decion tool have their own pros and cons but the choosing the most rational one becomes difficult. It is sadis that the decision tool whcih is more complex covers each and very aspect of the problem . Well but a small problem can turn the table and give a huge loss to the company .

To rectify that problem will cost the company a huge amount . So can we say that using number of simple and easy tools covering all the aspects are better as they are faster , does not incur the company with a huge loss if gone wrong ?


April 2012

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