There is a good article here in the Spectator about the tactics of following on. Alex Massie writes, correctly, that since VVS Laxman’s fantastic performance against Australia in Calcutta in 2001, when India became the third side in Test history to win after following on, captains around the world have become leery of enforcing the follow on. He argues – as has nearly every pundit I have heard/read – that this is a bad move, captains being swayed by the ‘exception, not the rule’. He admits that in 2006, SL saved the game at Lords after being made to follow on, but still thinks Andrew Strauss should have enforced the follow on.
I disagree. I think Andrew Strauss made the correct decision today. Ian Botham kept mentioning the two times he failed to get victory against West Indies earlier this year. But here are some other important facts.
In the last three years, not just SL in 06, but SA in 08 have drawn at Lords after being made to follow on, against fairly similar attacks to this one.
England enforced the follow on against Australia in 2005 at Trent Bridge, and very nearly lost – it basically came down to about 20 runs.
Alex Massie argues that for a side to win after following on, they need two or three career defining performances. I disagree. They need to play well, obviously, but if they do get a lead of 150+ and they have a spinner, the sheer pressure can be a huge factor. Had England lost that match following on at Trent Bridge, you would not have said there were two or three career defining performances – Shane Warne bowled brilliantly, yes, but their batsmen were responsible rather than Botham or Laxman esque brilliant.
Also, if you enforce the follow on is that you may very well lose the advantage of not having to bat last. Whereas, when you won the toss, you knew that you wouldn’t have to bat on a last day pitch, when you enforce the follow on, you may have to chase a target on that pitch. Whilst successful 4th innings run chases are getting higher and higher, it is still nevertheless tricky to chase any target on a 5th day pitch in the 4th innings. Certainly, you would say on most pitches in the world a par fourth innings score would be significantly lower than a par 1st innings score. In the sub continent, especially so. Even on this Lord’s pitch, that is true.
Overall, the thing that has changed is modern run rates. These make it far less likely that any games will end in a draw. We haven’t seen many more teams lose after enforcing the follow on because captains, unlike commentators or pundits, are well aware of the dangers. And the dangers are not just that you will lose – they are, as Massie notes, that you will get wiped out in the entire series. One of the best teams of all times, coming off the back of a 16 match winning streak, was so shell shocked by that Calcutta loss that it lost the subsequent match, and the series, too. Ditto 1981.
The fact is, in a lot of cases where a side has scored 200 runs more than the other side in their first innings, it may be that there is a gulf in class but it may also be that one side has cocked up. The point is that in the past, run rates were so significantly slower that if the side you put back in did recover and did improve their batting, chances are their batting speed, and the overall run rates in the match ruled out the chance of them beating you. The follow on has never been a guarantee of a win. In 411 matches where it has been enforced in the whole of Test cricket, 248 times it has resulted in a win for the team enforcing. There have been 160 draws (and of course three losses, all to Australia, which work out as 0.7%). That is only a 60/40 win margin. In the modern era, where draws are so much less likely, I would argue that a small but significant share of those draws could be converted into wins for the side who have followed on. The two times in the modern era a side have won after following on, they’ve had batsmen who have scored at a ‘modern’, fast pace. The 19th century example of winning after following on was a timeless test that went into a 6th day.
Consider this scenario, based on traditional 2.5 runs per over run rates. Side A win the toss and bat. They knock up 500 in two days. Side B come into bat and struggle, making 300 throughout the whole of day 3 and a session of day 4. Side A enforce the follow on. Side B get their act together and by lunch of day five – three sessions – have made 300 for not many. They are still only 100 ahead, so they are not in a position to declare and set A a testing target. Side A can only force the win if they blast out the remaining 7 or so wickets in a session and then try and score 150 odd in a session. The match peters out into a draw.
However, with exactly the same scores and same decisions, that entire match changes if we accelerate the run scoring. A make their 500 by lunch of day 2. B make their 300 by lunch day three. B get their act together and are 300-2/3 by lunch day 4. Bat through to the end of day four, or get bowled out by then, and all of a sudden side B are 250/300 ahead with three sessions to bowl out side A. Side A have three sessions to get the runs. I honestly believe that if the follow on was enforced more often, we would see more and more situations like this – they would still be a minority, yes, but they would be more than a 0.7% minority. If every potential follow on was enforced, I believe we would see something like 65% wins for team enforcing, 25% draws, 10% team being asked to follow on. (The overall result rate in cricket in the last decade is 75%, compared to 60% in all previous Tests.)
If we look back at Trent Bridge, the most recent time a side has wobbled after following on, we can see this. We came within 20 runs of losing a match which we had dominated for just about every session bar the last. We didn’t bowl badly in their second innings, they didn’t bat particularly outstandingly – they were competent. On top of that, the time was not a major issue – again, because of fast run rates, the game ended up finishing at the end of day 4! There were an entire 90 overs left. So we probably would have had enough time to bat again, set them a target of 500 odd, and then bowl them out. That scenario would have seen us scoring 100 runs more than we eventually needed Those 100 runs more would have taken us about a session more. The match would still have finished before lunch on the final day. Obviously, Australia might have batted better, knowing they had to stick it out/we might have bowled better, being less tired/who knows, these things are impossible to know. All I am saying is, the follow on is by no means the safe option it was, and it is by no means a guarantee of a win.
Shane Warne tried to claim yesterday that Ricky Ponting would be delighted Strauss hadn’t enforced the follow on, because it gave them a better chance of winning. I distinctly recall him saying four years ago how glad he was that England enforced the follow on at Trent Bridge, because it gave them a better chance of winning! He was right four years ago, he was wrong yesterday, if Australia chase down these runs fair play to them, someone really will have to put in a career defining performance.